The 2023 NBA draft class could be a historic set of players, according to ESPN Analytics' NBA draft projections. Nine players have at least a 30% chance to become an All-Star-caliber player, the most since our projections debuted in 2015.
The NBA draft model forecasts a range of outcomes for players entering the league. A full breakdown of the methodology can be found at the end of this story. The abridged version is that the model is a combination of five individual ones based on the following:
NCAA production
International production
ESPN draft expert rankings
AAU statistics
NBA combine measurements
The overall model can be used to probabilistically determine the future performance of prospects about to enter the NBA.
Victor Wembanyama | PF | Metropolitans 92
Wembanyama is the clear No. 1 in this year's draft, with a 55% chance to be an All-Star-caliber player. He has the third-highest odds since 2015, trailing Zion Williamson's (59%) and Cade Cunningham (58%). Wembanyama's average predicted real plus-minus in his fourth season is 1.2, also third since 2015.
Despite that, our model may be underrating a prospect who stands at a reported 7-foot-5 with an 8-foot wingspan. He's the No. 1-ranked international prospect in the model's history. Here are a few of his rankings among international prospects since 2015 in opponent-adjusted stats:
No. 10 in 3-point FGs (the next center is No. 68)
No. 2 in block percentage
No. 7 in defensive, No. 10 in offensive and No. 7 in total rebounding percentage
No. 12 in turnover percentage
No. 2 in box plus-minus (a box score-based metric estimating a player's contribution when on the court)
The NBA draft model also produces comparisons for each prospect based on their projections, position, height, weight and age. Wembanyama's top three comps: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Other top prospects
After Wembanyama, the model sees a clear next tier of prospects: G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson, Houston power forward Jarace Walker and Alabama small forward Brandon Miller. Henderson ranks No. 2 in the model's projections with a 40% chance to be an All-Star-caliber player and an average predicted RPM of 0.3. Walker is No. 3 at 39% and 0.2, and Miller is next at 37% and 0.1.
Despite landing behind Wembanyama in this year's draft, Henderson's projections put him on the same level as previous No. 1 overall prospects such as Minnesota's Anthony Edwards (41% chance to be an All-Star, 0.3 predicted RPM). In short, the model doesn't think the Hornets should pass on their chance to draft Henderson.
Walker, currently No. 5 in Jonathan Givony's latest mock draft, could be a steal at any of his projected landing spots, whether that's the Detroit Pistons at No. 5, Indiana Pacers at No. 7 or even the Utah Jazz at No. 9. Here are some of his rankings:
No. 1 in the AAU-based model
No. 5 in the NCAA-based model
No. 7 in adjusted block percentage
No. 13 in adjusted offensive rebounding (NCAA)
He comes out above average in most advanced stats considered by the model, and rates as an elite shot-blocker and rebounder, one of the most stable metrics for projecting NBA prospects.
Miller is ranked No. 2 in our scout rankings and is currently projected second in ESPN's latest mock draft but falls to fourth in our model's projections. Miller actually beats out Walker in our NCAA-based model, ranking third overall, but falls short in his AAU production, ranking No. 15.
He tends to foul at a high rate and has a below-average steal percentage, but in every other metric, he performs extremely well. He rebounds and blocks at a high level for a wing, and his true shooting percentage and turnover rate are both fantastic, especially when accounting for his high usage rate.
The next tier
The next five prospects each have a better than 30% chance to be All-Star caliber. Based on their average predicted RPM, the model has them ordered: UCF PF Taylor Hendricks, Overtime Elite guards Ausar Thompson and Amen Thompson, Villanova SF Cam Whitmore and Arkansas SG Anthony Black.
Hendricks lands at No. 5 in the model's rankings despite currently going No. 7 in Givony's mock draft. He was the best-performing prospect in our NCAA-based model, which pushes him just ahead of the Thompson twins. He also performed well in his AAU appearances, ranking No. 16 overall in that model's projections. He has a higher chance of being at least a starter-level player than any other prospect except Wembanyama.
However, both Thompsons and Whitmore surpass Hendricks when looking at their chances to be an All-Star-caliber player. The model sees Hendricks as a player whose skills are likely to translate but who has a slightly lower upside, while the Thompsons and Whitmore have a higher upside with a lower floor.
Amen and Ausar Thompson are in a virtual tie at No. 6 overall. Here are their rankings in the three individual models they have data for, respectively:
Givony's rankings: No. 4 and No. 6
Combine measurements: No. 27 and No. 34
AAU-based model: No. 61 and No. 55
Ausar has a slightly better chance at being a starter-level player or better, while Amen has a better shot at being All-Star caliber.
The top 30 players
Underrated prospects
Who could be this draft's Nikola Jokic or Jimmy Butler? The 2022-23 All-NBA teams featured 14 first-round picks, 12 of whom went in the lottery. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Butler were the non-lottery picks, and Jokic was the lone second-rounder. Some candidates who could outperform their selection this year include Alabama PF Noah Clowney and Ohio St. SF Brice Sensabaugh.
Clowney is currently No. 21 in ESPN's mock draft but is 10th in our model's projections. His ranking is a product of his performance at Alabama, which pushed him to sixth in our NCAA-based model. He is a high-level rebounder and shot-blocker and would probably be even higher if not for a poor ranking in the AAU-based model, where he's No. 77 out of 81 prospects.
Sensabaugh is projected No. 31 in ESPN's mock draft despite ranking No. 14 overall in our model. His No. 7 ranking in our NCAA-based model and his above-average play during the Nike EYBL circuit in 2021 buoyed him up to his current spot. He's second overall in usage percentage among college prospects and ranks No. 32 in the AAU-based model.
Also: Michigan SG Jett Howard (18th in the mock draft, 13th in the model), TCU PG Mike Miles Jr. (unselected vs. 41st)
Overrated prospects
Wembanyama's Metropolitans 92 teammate Bilal Coulibaly has received a huge amount of attention over the past few months and has rocketed up draft boards as scouts have watched him play alongside the projected No. 1 pick. He's currently going No. 16 in our mock draft, but our model ranks him No. 24 based on his production.
His projections have a high amount of variance due to the large difference between his rankings from draft experts and his relatively low international production. He ranks just eighth in our international model. This gives him a 17% chance to be an All-Star caliber player (No. 14), but just a 64% chance to be a starter or better (No. 24).
Also: Iowa PF Kris Murray (No 24 in the mock, No. 40 in the model), New Zealand Breakers SG Rayan Rupert (No. 23 in the mock, No. 28 in the model).
Rest of the rankings
Methodology
At ESPN Analytics, we combine our draft experts' scouting grades with four other statistical models to get an average projection for each player over his first contract. We seek to project a predictive version of our RPM metric for each player at the end of his fourth season and obtain a probability that the player will reach the level of play of an All-Star, starter, bench player or non-NBA player in that time period.
The five individual models that are aggregated to achieve the final projections are based on NCAA production, AAU stats, international play, combine measurements and scout rankings. Some notes on the information used:
• Scout rankings are based on ESPN draft experts' rankings.
• The NCAA and AAU models considered opponent-adjusted per-possession box-score statistics and composite statistics, such as individual rating and win shares.
• International statistics include similar box-score metrics and adjust for the strength of the league.
• The combine model is based on body measurements, such as height, weight, wingspan and body fat percentage relative to position.
For each player, all relevant categories are considered if available.