A few years ago, ESPN Analytics developed pass block win rate (PBWR) to measure how often individual players and teams sustained their pass blocks for at least 2.5 seconds, using player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats. That was backward-looking, but let's flip it forward to project every team's pass block win rate for the 2021 season.
To achieve this we used a regression model that considers every projected starter's individual pass block win rate over the past two seasons. Players who did not play in either or both seasons (including rookies) were assigned a below-average PBWR for their position, and anyone who failed to meet the qualifying threshold had their win rate regressed toward that below-average target.
We'll go 1-32 based on projected PBWR for 2021, using ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay's offensive line starter projections to give us each team's starting five. The expected starters are listed along with their 2020 PBWR rank (if they qualified). For reference, there were 62 qualifiers at tackle, 70 at guard and 35 at center last season.
You can see last season's PBWR rankings here. We'll have a similar list of teams' projected run block win rates (RBWR) out in a couple of weeks. But now we're focusing on pass-blocking ...
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
1. Cleveland Browns
Projected PBWR: 65%
Projected offensive line (left to right) and 2020 PBWR ranks at position: Jedrick Wills Jr. (ninth), Joel Bitonio (first), JC Tretter (third), Wyatt Teller (20th), Jack Conklin (fifth)
From Myles Garrett to Odell Beckham Jr. to Denzel Ward to Nick Chubb, Cleveland's roster is loaded. And that absolutely extends to the offensive line, which should give Baker Mayfield every opportunity to execute an efficient passing game. The talent is there, and so is the continuity: This group started a collective 73 games out of a possible 80 for Cleveland last season.
One more note: While Bucs first-round pick Tristan Wirfs drew plenty of praise for his role with the Super Bowl champs, it was actually Wills who best performed in PBWR among the 2020 crop of rookie tackles.
2. Green Bay Packers
Projected PBWR: 65%
Projected offensive line: David Bakhtiari (sixth), Elgton Jenkins (ninth), Josh Myers (rookie), Lucas Patrick (sixth), Billy Turner (third)
It speaks to the quality of the Green Bay offensive line that it can lose arguably the game's best center in Corey Linsley, replace him with a rookie (Myers), and still rank second. Something -- maybe it's coaching, or Aaron Rodgers, or scheme -- really works in Green Bay, because PBWR seems to fall in love with everyone when they get there.
It doesn't hurt that the Packers have had quite possibly the best left tackle in the game anchoring their line for years in Bakhtiari, though this analysis assumes that he'll be full strength, which might not be a given considering he tore an ACL in late December.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Projected PBWR: 63%
Projected offensive line: D.J. Humphries (20th), Justin Pugh (seventh), Rodney Hudson (15th), Justin Murray (13th), Kelvin Beachum (11th)
The Cardinals lack an elite talent along their offensive line, but there's an argument it's more important to not have a single weak link rather than being particularly strong at one position. And that's their exact situation: There is no hole in the line here.
Clearly the market has not been particularly high on Beachum -- he re-signed on a two-year, $4 million deal this offseason -- but our win rates have always been fond of his blocking dating back to his days with the Jets. Hudson, who joined in a March trade from the Raiders, appears to have fallen off from what he once was, but he's no liability.
4. Seattle Seahawks
Projected PBWR: 62%
Projected offensive line: Duane Brown (second), Damien Lewis (33rd), Ethan Pocic (16th), Gabe Jackson (21st), Brandon Shell (12th)
Brown might not get enough credit as one of the best pass-blocking tackles in the league; he has finished among the top three in PBWR in two of the past three seasons. Jackson should be an upgrade over Mike Iupati, which is one reason why we project the Seahawks to improve from ninth in PBWR last season to fourth in 2021.
While Russell Wilson might be frustrated by how often he has been hit, there aren't many places better equipped to protect him than Seattle.
5. Buffalo Bills
Projected PBWR: 61%
Projected offensive line: Dion Dawkins (14th), Cody Ford (DNQ), Mitch Morse (second), Jon Feliciano (DNQ), Daryl Williams (19th)
Josh Allen was under pressure frequently in 2020, but much of that was due to the 3.04 seconds he averaged before getting rid of the ball. That he had that time to begin with is a credit to the offensive line, which ranked fourth in PBWR. We expect the pass-blocking success to continue.
6. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected PBWR: 61%
Projected offensive line: Orlando Brown Jr. (28th), Joe Thuney (29th), Austin Blythe (25th), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (DNP), Mike Remmers (10th)
Kansas City's remade offensive line -- we project the Chiefs to have four new starters -- should protect Patrick Mahomes well, beyond what the individual ranks above might suggest. In 2019, Thuney and Duvernay-Tardif ranked second and 21st among guards in PBWR, while Brown ranked sixth among tackles. The model considers performance in each of the past two seasons, so that's a reason for optimism that's factored in.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected PBWR: 61%
Projected offensive line: Jordan Mailata (32nd), Isaac Seumalo (fourth), Jason Kelce (12th), Brandon Brooks (DNP), Lane Johnson (DNQ)
Pass block win rate strongly suggested that the offensive line in Philadelphia was better than most believed, as the Eagles finished 11th in the metric. Yes, Carson Wentz led the league in sack rate and had the sixth-highest pressure rate, but he also had the fifth-highest time before pass average, suggesting he played a significant role in those pressures and sacks -- as quarterbacks often do.
The model likes Philly to improve in 2021 in pass protection in part because of the possibility of a full season from Johnson, who played in only seven games in 2020.
8. Los Angeles Rams
Projected PBWR: 61%
Projected offensive line: Andrew Whitworth (first), David Edwards (50th), Austin Corbett (45th at G), Joe Noteboom (17th at T), Rob Havenstein (13th)
At some point age is going to catch up with the 39-year-old Whitworth, but it hasn't really happened yet. He did get double-team help 39% of the time last season, seventh most among tackles, which surely helped his win rate, but he has been an asset on Jared Goff's blindside and likely will be the same for Matthew Stafford.
9. Indianapolis Colts
Projected PBWR: 61%
Projected offensive line: Eric Fisher (36th), Quenton Nelson (3rd), Ryan Kelly (18th), Mark Glowinski (49th), Braden Smith (30th)
Adding Fisher blunts the loss of the retiring Anthony Castonzo, who finished 21st in PBWR among tackles last season, but it's still a downgrade at left tackle. With Nelson still anchoring the line, though -- only Joel Bitonio and Zack Martin had a higher PBWR at guard last season -- the Colts are in solid shape.
10. Houston Texans
Projected PBWR: 60%
Projected offensive line: Laremy Tunsil (25th), Max Scharping (14th), Justin Britt (DNP), Lane Taylor (DNQ), Tytus Howard (35th)
The Texans look destined for a losing season, but offensive line is one of the stronger units on this roster. You'd hope so, after they mortgaged the future a few years back by trading multiple first-round picks for Tunsil. He and Howard produced higher win rates in 2019 than 2020, and the model takes both seasons into account.
11. New England Patriots
Projected PBWR: 60%
Projected offensive line: Isaiah Wynn (33rd), Mike Onwenu (15th at T), David Andrews (14th), Shaq Mason (22nd), Trent Brown (DNQ)
You can see the upside here. Mason and Brown have each previously recorded a top-11 PBWR season at their respective positions, even though neither did last season. Onwenu showed promise as a rookie, too.
12. New Orleans Saints
Projected PBWR: 60%
Projected offensive line: Terron Armstead (24th), Andrus Peat (11th), Erik McCoy (21st), Cesar Ruiz (26th), Ryan Ramczyk (27th)
PBWR always seems to be lower on the Saints relative to perception. It's possible that's because Drew Brees kept sack and pressure rates low with his quick passing game, while PBWR awards no points to an offensive lineman who sustains his block when the ball is thrown before 2.5 seconds. Nonetheless, there's no major weak point in New Orleans' line.
13. San Francisco 49ers
Projected PBWR: 59%
Projected offensive line: Trent Williams (fourth), Laken Tomlinson (39th), Alex Mack (22nd), Aaron Banks (rookie), Mike McGlinchey (44th)
McGlinchey ranked fifth in PBWR in 2019, so there's upside here for San Francisco. The 49ers have an elite left tackle in Williams, but the rest of the line is middling.
14. Baltimore Ravens
Projected PBWR: 59%
Projected offensive line: Ronnie Stanley (DNQ), Ben Cleveland (rookie), Bradley Bozeman (10th at G), Kevin Zeitler (41st), Alejandro Villanueva (58th)
It's shocking to see Baltimore so low on this list. And make no mistake, this has nothing to do with Stanley, who not only finished fourth in PBWR in 2019 but was leading the category through Week 8 when he was injured last season.
It's the three newcomers (Cleveland, Zeitler and Villanueva) who drag down this unit, particularly Villanueva, who looks like a significant downgrade from Orlando Brown Jr. in pass protection (though Villanueva did have a slightly higher run block win rate than Brown last season).
15. Dallas Cowboys
Projected PBWR: 59%
Projected offensive line: Tyron Smith (DNQ), Connor Williams (38th), Tyler Biadasz (13th), Zack Martin (2nd), La'el Collins (DNP)
The talent is there, certainly. But Smith playing only two games in 2020 and Collins missing the entire year ups the uncertainty for this O-line. Dallas ranked 26th in PBWR last season, so even if it finished in the middle of the league, it would be a big step up from 2020.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected PBWR: 59%
Projected offensive line: Donovan Smith (51st), Ali Marpet (fifth), Ryan Jensen (eighth), Alex Cappa (51st), Tristan Wirfs (31st)
It's a little surprising to see the Bucs in the middle of the pack after their Super Bowl run and a well-regarded rookie campaign for Wirfs (though PBWR wasn't totally sold). The win rates are skeptical, however, of Tom Brady's left tackle Smith, along with Cappa.
17. Denver Broncos
Projected PBWR: 59%
Projected offensive line: Garett Bolles (seventh), Dalton Risner (25th), Lloyd Cushenberry III (31st), Graham Glasgow (64th), Bobby Massie (43rd)
Bolles had a quiet breakout in 2020 that earned him not just a top-10 PBWR ranking but a second-team AP All-Pro team selection. He doesn't have enough help around him to elevate the unit overall, but with Bolles anchoring the left side, it keeps Denver from dropping too much.
18. Washington Football Team
Projected PBWR: 58%
Projected offensive line: Charles Leno Jr. (38th), Ereck Flowers (56th), Chase Roullier (ninth), Brandon Scherff (eighth), Sam Cosmi (rookie)
Washington brought in veterans Leno and Flowers this offseason, but pass block win rate actually preferred two linemen already playing for Washington at those spots: Cornelius Lucas, who ranked 18th in the metric at tackle, and Wes Schweitzer, who finished 27th at guard.
19. Chicago Bears
Projected PBWR: 57%
Projected offensive line: Teven Jenkins (rookie), Cody Whitehair (28th at C), Sam Mustipher (30th), James Daniels (DNQ), Germain Ifedi (62nd at G)
If there's a way to "game" our projected PBWR model, it's to move players farther outside along the line (from center to guard or from guard to tackle) from one season to the next, so my hunch is that the Bears end up a little worse than this. The hope is that Whitehair and Daniels play more like they did in 2019 and the rookie Jenkins is effective right away, but it's also easy to imagine the downside.
20. Las Vegas Raiders
Projected PBWR: 57%
Projected offensive line: Kolton Miller (29th), Richie Incognito (DNQ), Andre James (DNQ), Denzelle Good (55th), Alex Leatherwood (rookie)
The dismantling of the Raiders' offensive line still seems questionable, and our projections expect a significant step back in 2021. Las Vegas ranked 10th in PBWR last season, despite getting only two games from Incognito, who ranked third in PBWR among guards in 2019.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected PBWR: 56%
Projected offensive line: Cam Robinson (59th), Andrew Norwell (15th), Brandon Linder (first), A.J. Cann (35th), Jawaan Taylor (61st)
The Jaguars are a mess at tackle after the confounding decision to franchise-tag Robinson following a poor 2020 season. Linder and Norwell save this line from disaster, but rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence should be concerned about pressure from the edge.
22. Los Angeles Chargers
Projected PBWR: 56%
Projected offensive line: Rashawn Slater (rookie), Matt Feiler (67th), Corey Linsley (fifth), Oday Aboushi (32nd), Bryan Bulaga (DNQ)
This is already a dramatic improvement over 2020. The Chargers ranked 31st in PBWR last season, so the addition of Linsley, the possibility of a healthy year from Bulaga, and a first-round rookie in Slater offer significant promise for this line.
The model is not going to assume immediate success for Slater, however, and Feiler struggled last season in Pittsburgh, hence the middling rank.
23. Cincinnati Bengals
Projected PBWR: 56%
Projected offensive line: Jonah Williams (45th), Quinton Spain (46th), Trey Hopkins (20th), Jackson Carman (rookie), Riley Reiff (37th)
We're projecting improvement for a Bengals offensive line that struggled to protect Joe Burrow in the 2020 No. 1 pick's rookie season. There's some draft equity in Williams (first-rounder in 2019) and Carman (second-rounder this year), but it's hard to imagine how this could become a particularly strong line in 2021.
24. Minnesota Vikings
Projected PBWR: 56%
Projected offensive line: Christian Darrisaw (rookie), Ezra Cleveland (53rd), Garrett Bradbury (23rd), Wyatt Davis (rookie), Brian O'Neill (26th)
Darrisaw was a well-regarded pass-protecting prospect selected in the first round in April. The reality is that rookies, even first-rounders, are a mixed bag. The model treats rookies as below-average starters -- I took a stab at making first-round rookies a specific variable but it hurt the model's accuracy -- so it's going to be skeptical of a line like this without any proven strong talent. It actually expects a step back from last season.
25. Atlanta Falcons
Projected PBWR: 56%
Projected offensive line: Jake Matthews (41st), Jalen Mayfield (rookie), Matt Hennessy (DNQ), Chris Lindstrom (23rd), Kaleb McGary (47th)
The Falcons have invested draft capital into this offensive line -- three first-round picks and two third-rounders -- but that hasn't resulted in a strong forecast. The projections anticipate a drop-off from Atlanta's mediocre pass protection last season, with uncertainty coming in the form of Mayfield and Hennessy replacing Alex Mack and James Carpenter.
26. Tennessee Titans
Projected PBWR: 56%
Projected offensive line: Taylor Lewan (DNQ), Rodger Saffold III (66th), Ben Jones (sixth), Nate Davis (37th), Dillon Radunz (rookie)
The shock last season was Saffold, who in 2018 cracked the top 10 of PBWR among guards but dropped in 2019 and then fell all the way to 66th in 2020. The Titans need him to get back to his old form (perhaps a tall task at age 33) and a full season from Lewan -- a top-10 tackle in 2019 -- to protect Ryan Tannehill.
27. Carolina Panthers
Projected PBWR: 56%
Projected offensive line: Cameron Erving (DNQ), Pat Elflein (DNQ), Matt Paradis (29th), John Miller (52nd), Taylor Moton (16th)
Sam Darnold should have better weapons and better coaching in Carolina, but he probably will not get a particularly good pass-protecting line. The ranks above might even give an overly optimistic impression, because Erving and Elflein both ranked poorly in 2019. Moton, who just got a four-year extension, is the only reliable blocker here.
28. New York Jets
Projected PBWR: 55%
Projected offensive line: Mekhi Becton (49th), Alijah Vera-Tucker (rookie), Connor McGovern (33rd), Greg Van Roten (44th), Morgan Moses (39th)
The Jets have more upside than their ranking would suggest here, and not just because of the two recent first-rounders. It also has to do with the way Becton's rookie season went; he came out of the gates on fire, and through four weeks he ranked seventh among tackles in PBWR before a shoulder injury (actually suffered in Week 3) took him out for a couple of games. When he came back, his PBWR tanked -- he was banged up a couple of other times, too -- but if the early-season Becton was the real deal, the Jets will be better off than 28th.
29. Detroit Lions
Projected PBWR: 55%
Projected offensive line: Taylor Decker (23rd), Jonah Jackson (58th), Frank Ragnow (seventh), Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DNQ), Penei Sewell (rookie)
I know it seems wrong to not assume that Sewell will be an asset right away, but look no further than the Giants' Andrew Thomas, the No. 4 overall pick in 2020, to see an example of an early Round 1 tackle struggling in his rookie campaign. Plus, PBWR was not a fan of Vaitai's 2020 season, though he barely missed qualifying last season, playing 429 snaps.
30. Miami Dolphins
Projected PBWR: 54%
Projected offensive line: Austin Jackson (54th), Solomon Kindley (57th), Matt Skura (fourth), Robert Hunt (DNQ), Liam Eichenberg (rookie)
There has been some draft investment here, as Jackson was a first-rounder a year ago and Hunt and Eichenberg were second-rounders in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Jackson did not play well as a rookie, however, and none of those young players is a sure thing going forward.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected PBWR: 53%
Projected offensive line: Chukwuma Okorafor (46th), Kevin Dotson (DNQ), Kendrick Green (rookie), Trai Turner (70th), Zach Banner (DNQ)
With four new starters and Okorafor projected to move to left tackle, it's hard to imagine how this line is going to protect Ben Roethlisberger. Of the bottom five teams on this list, this is the only one without a first-rounder selected in either this year's or last year's draft.
Turner actually finished third in PBWR among guards in 2018, but he has put together two poor seasons since.
32. New York Giants
Projected PBWR: 52%
Projected offensive line: Andrew Thomas (56th), Shane Lemieux (69th), Nick Gates (34th), Will Hernandez (31st), Matt Peart (DNQ)
So much for general manager Dave Gettleman's grand plan for the offensive line. The rookie Thomas performed well according to our run blocking metric, but he was a liability as a pass protector -- though he did battle an ankle injury that required surgery after the season.
In what could be a make-or-break season for third-year quarterback Daniel Jones, Gettleman got him more receiving help, but Jones is going to be on the run behind this O-line.