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2023 NFL draft: Debating best and worst Round 1 picks, trades

Not long after Alabama quarterback Bryce Young was announced as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, the chaos began in Round 1.

No one knew what the Texans were going to do at No. 2, and they surprised by going with a quarterback after all -- and then trading up to also take a standout defender at No. 3. We saw two running backs drafted in the top 12, six trades up the board and a shocking slide for Kentucky quarterback Will Levis. And after 19 straight picks to begin the draft without a wide receiver, four in a row came off the board to kick off the 20s. We've never seen that many picked consecutively in the common draft era, per ESPN Stats & Information.

With all 31 first-round picks in the rearview mirror, let's debate the best and worst of an exciting opening night. NFL draft analysts Todd McShay, Jordan Reid and Matt Miller answered 12 of the biggest lingering questions, including which picks were great value, questionable reaches and perfect solutions to huge needs. Plus, which trades stood out, and which QBs landed with ideal teams? We also took a quick look ahead to Day 2, which will get underway Friday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN App) with Round 2. But first, here's our snap reaction to Day 1.

Who was the best pick of the night?

Todd McShay: Running back Bijan Robinson to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. I just love the fit, positional value aside. He is my No. 2 prospect in this class and brings a whole new element to the Falcons' offense with his power, pass-game traits and contact balance. He's one of the best running backs I've evaluated in the past decade, and with Atlanta's run-heavy scheme, he could really dominate right out of the gate. General manager Terry Fontenot is setting quarterback Desmond Ridder up well here.

Matt Miller: The Indianapolis Colts shocked the world by selecting Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson at No. 4 overall, but I love the scheme fit with new coach Shane Steichen. Richardson should play this year thanks to his dual-threat ability and deep-ball talent, and Steichen can scheme up ways to get him early career success while he gains much-needed experience after starting just 13 games in college.

Jordan Reid: The Houston Texans picking Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud at No. 2, despite rumors they were going another direction. Stroud is a top-tier passer who immediately upgrades the offense. And when you factor in that Houston then traded up from No. 12 to No. 3 for Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. -- arguably the top defensive player in the draft -- they quickly won the night for me. Round 1 really kicked off the DeMeco Ryans era with a bang. Both picks addressed needs, and the Texans landed two of my top five overall prospects.


Which pick left you shaking your head?

McShay: Tennessee offensive tackle Darnell Wright going to the Chicago Bears at No. 10 was questionable mainly because he went before Northwestern's Peter Skoronski and Georgia's Broderick Jones. I get that he's dominant in the run game, and I do like his 2022 tape. But the fit worries me a little, and I just don't think he's in the same class as Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr., Skoronski and Jones.

Miller: I am a big Jahmyr Gibbs fan, but selecting the Alabama running back at No. 12 overall was a shocker, even after the Detroit Lions traded down in the round. Gibbs is an electric runner and receiver out of the backfield, but to have two running backs off the board before a single wide receiver was drafted clocked in as the first big surprise of the draft.

Reid: I'm going to stay on the Lions here, Matt. And I agree they could've traded down again and still possibly taken Gibbs. But I was more confused by the Jack Campbell pick at No. 18. That was another reach, despite the need on defense. The linebacker class is among the weakest of any position this year, but taking the Iowa defender seemed very premature.


What was the best quarterback landing spot?

McShay: It has to be Young to the Panthers. This is a team that won seven games last year and has a solid roster in a division that's up for grabs. A veteran in Andy Dalton is there to help ease Young into the NFL. Carolina's coach, Frank Reich, knows how to work with signal-callers. It's just a good landing spot. The Panthers now need to get Young some more offensive playmakers, and I'm hoping for his sake that begins Friday, when numerous high-end receivers and tight ends will be available.

Miller: Stroud with the Texans. It's fair to say the Texans don't have a well-established receiver corps, but there is a promising offensive line in place, anchored by arguably the best left tackle in the league (Laremy Tunsil) and ascending talents in Kenyon Green and Tytus Howard. And Stroud will have a very good running back in Dameon Pierce. He can elevate his targets and will like targeting big men Noah Brown and Nico Collins on the outside.

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The highlights that make C.J. Stroud a top NFL prospect

Take a look at some of C.J. Stroud's highlights from his college career at Ohio State.

Reid: I'll go with Young to the Panthers. They were tired of the veteran retread pattern, and they were able to trade up to No. 1 overall and identify which QB could turn the corner under center for them. Young enters a situation with a wealth of resources and good offensive infrastructure in place, including a good offensive line, running back Miles Sanders and receivers Adam Thielen and DJ Chark. Young is set up to succeed very quickly.


What was the biggest surprise of the night?

McShay: I mean, why not go with the first one of the night? I was pretty surprised that Houston was able to keep its plans under wraps so well and walk away from the top three picks with a franchise quarterback and the top defender on the board. I had heard a little buzz around the Texans trading up from No. 12, but the thinking before the draft was the trade up would be for a quarterback. To take Stroud and then go get a leader on defense was outstanding. With a bunch of picks in the top 50, you have to credit GM Nick Caserio for taking advantage of a trade-hungry team in Arizona and getting two high-impact players.

Miller: The fall down the board for Levis was surprising based on expectations, though not as much based on rankings (he was my No. 25 overall player). It reminds us that the NFL values quarterbacks differently than we do based on team needs and positional value. Levis' injury concerns, age and turnover struggles -- he had 23 interceptions over the past two years -- clearly factored into the minds of NFL front offices. But even so, his fall was a big surprise given the importance of the quarterback position.

Reid: How about two running backs coming off the board before any wide receivers? Robinson and Gibbs were widely viewed as first-round picks, but both going inside of the top 12 picks came as a huge surprise. We've seen wideouts come off the board in a hurry over the past few years, but the first one didn't get picked until the Seattle Seahawks drafted Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba at No. 20. Receivers then came off of the board with the next three picks. It was really interesting to see teams take two players at a devalued position before getting even one pass-catcher.


Which of the teams with multiple first-rounders did the best on Day 1?

McShay: The Texans are the obvious one, but I'll give the Philadelphia Eagles some love here. Philly is quickly becoming Georgia North, picking two more Bulldogs in the first round after selecting Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean on the first two days last year. Perhaps there's something to it, since Georgia had the most talented defense in college football over the past two years. Landing outside linebacker Nolan Smith at No. 30 was terrific value, but I also really like the fit for defensive tackle Jalen Carter at No. 9. He reunites with former teammates and will join a defensive line filled with veterans who will hold him accountable. It feels like a perfect situation.

Miller: It's hard to argue against choosing the Texans here. Caserio closed the first round with my Nos. 1 and 4 overall players in Anderson and Stroud, respectively. The Texans checked off needs at the two most important positions in football with back-to-back picks.

Reid: The Seahawks came away with my top-ranked wide receiver in Ohio State's Smith-Njigba and my second-ranked cornerback in Illinois' Devon Witherspoon. Those are two potential building blocks in Seattle, and the Seahawks arguably had the best first round of any team. Smith-Njigba gives the team another option for quarterback Geno Smith, and Witherspoon is now paired with Tariq Woolen to form a dynamic duo at corner.


Which team best addressed a glaring need -- or needs?

McShay: They had to trade up to get him, but the Pittsburgh Steelers drafting Broderick Jones makes a ton of sense. If they are going to have success with Kenny Pickett, they have to better protect him. And Jones didn't allow a single sack over 15 starts at left tackle last season.

Miller: The Eagles selecting Carter at No. 9 overall fills an immediate need for more pass-rushers but also a future need with Fletcher Cox's brilliant career winding down. Carter will learn from one of the NFL's best 3-techniques while reuniting with former Georgia teammates in the middle of the Philadelphia defense.

Reid: Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks to the New York Giants. After the Giants tied for a league-low six interceptions last year, Banks addresses a glaring hole on the outside. My third-ranked corner, he is a big, physical and polished cover man who gives the Giants a boost in the secondary. Banks is a perfect fit in Wink Martindale's man-to-man scheme thanks to the way he gets his hands on receivers at the line of scrimmage.


What was your favorite trade up, down or for a player of the night?

McShay: I'm going with the New England Patriots trading down from No. 14 to No. 17 and then taking Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez. You can't tell me for a second that coach Bill Belichick didn't consider that trading with the Steelers would block the division rival New York Jets from the last of the top-tier offensive tackles, since they were set to pick at No. 15. And the Pats landed a toolsy cover guy with great speed and size who we all thought would have been off the board in the top 10. Belichick loves draft day trades, and this one landed him my No. 8 prospect and an additional fourth-rounder while blocking a rival.

Miller: I'll take the other side of it, with the Steelers jumping from No. 17 to No. 14 -- and getting ahead of the Jets -- for Jones. The move was beautifully executed. The Steelers and Jets both needed a left tackle, and following the run on linemen earlier in the draft, Jones was the only player at the position with a first-round grade left on the board. Getting ahead of New York for a plug-and-play starting left tackle was a good understanding of the board.

Reid: The Eagles trading up one spot for Carter was my favorite move of the night. Getting arguably the best player in the draft at No. 9 was a steal for Philadelphia, and the fit is perfect for Carter -- he will pair with Davis and has a mentor in Cox. The trade was only one spot, but it also only cost Philadelphia a fourth-round pick to land a talented defender who was sliding. The Eagles like to invest in the trenches in the first round, and Carter has a chance to make an impact quickly for the Eagles.

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The highlights that make Jalen Carter a top NFL draft prospect

Check out some of the best highlights from Georgia's Jalen Carter's college career that have him projected to be a top pick in the draft.


Which contender helped itself the most?

McShay: I loved the Baltimore Ravens' pick of Boston College receiver Zay Flowers. Over the course of a month, Baltimore took a pass game with a lot of questions and gradually addressed the issues. It signed Odell Beckham Jr. earlier this month. It extended quarterback Lamar Jackson hours before the draft. And it picked up one of the most elusive receivers in the draft class at No. 22. The Ravens lacked a true threat at receiver -- they ranked last in the NFL with 1,517 wide receiver receiving yards last season -- and this offense is now borderline scary. This is a legit Super Bowl contender.

Miller: The Seahawks -- yes, they are a contender -- did a great job staying pat at Nos. 5 and 20 overall and selecting good football players. Witherspoon will start opposite Woolen to form a really good pairing at cornerback, while my top-ranked wide receiver, Smith-Njigba, will give Seattle three legitimate targets with alignment versatility. JSN is likely an eventual replacement for Tyler Lockett, too.

Reid: I still can't believe the Eagles came away with both Carter and Smith. GM Howie Roseman found his young replacement for Javon Hargrave while also adding a clone of Haason Reddick in Smith. The Eagles are notorious for utilizing early draft capital in the trenches, and they continued to do that with the former Georgia defenders. Philadelphia had 70 sacks (No. 1 in the league) last year, and it kept that defensive front a strength. I see the Eagles as huge Day 1 winners.


Which first-round offensive playmaker will have the best rookie season?

McShay: Smith-Njigba. When you think about the Seahawks' offense also having DK Metcalf and Lockett, I think back to the Ohio State unit in 2021, when JSN was joined by Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. He dominated out of the slot, and that's where he should play in Seattle. With Metcalf and Lockett taking pressure off him, he could feast in Year 1. (As an aside, I expect big things from Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the Buffalo Bills, too.)

Miller: Robinson with the Falcons. In the Arthur Smith power run offense, Robinson is set for a massive season behind a great offensive line. He should be an early selection in fantasy drafts, just like he was in the actual draft. He's my early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Reid: Jordan Addison with the Minnesota Vikings. After the team parted ways with Thielen, there was a hole at the WR2 spot. Addison will step into that role and immediately see a lot of available targets. Justin Jefferson commands plenty of the attention, so I think Addison can thrive off him in this offense. Receivers are expected to have alignment versatility in coach Kevin O'Connell's offense, and Addison provides an inside-out option for quarterback Kirk Cousins.


What is the best Day 2 fit for Will Levis?

McShay: Watch for Seattle at No. 37. I heard some buzz around the Seahawks and the quarterbacks in Round 1, so with Levis still here, they could pick him early on Day 2. It'd be a great landing spot, too. Levis has to work on his touch and decision-making, and he could learn behind Geno Smith for at least a year before potentially taking over. And when/if he does, he'd have numerous deep threats to target with his huge arm.

Miller: I look at the Los Angeles Rams with pick No. 36 overall as an ideal fit. Matthew Stafford's health is a concern coming off the 2022 season, and there is no quarterback behind him in line to be a starter. Levis' fall is a surprise, but the Sean McVay offense fits his strengths -- pocket play, arm strength and good mobility -- and could be his best chance to have a successful NFL career as a Round 2 pick.

Reid: The Tennessee Titans at No. 41 overall is one spot to keep an eye on. With Ryan Tannehill entering the final year of his deal (and turning 35 years old) and Malik Willis not showing enough as his backup last season, the team could look to add another young passer to the mix. Levis' slide was unexpected, but he will be a key name to watch on the second day of the draft. Teams are prone to trade up when a signal-caller slips down the board, which could make Levis a hot commodity in Round 2.


Who else are you most shocked to see still on the board?

McShay: How is Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer still out there? I thought for sure that the Dallas Cowboys would take him at No. 26, and I was even surprised he was there at that spot. He was No. 19 on my final board, and he does a little bit of everything. He is a reliable pass-catcher but also has an edge as an in-line blocker.

Miller: Alabama safety Brian Branch, who was No. 28 on my board. When Nick Saban tabs you as the quarterback of your secondary, you're pretty good at football. Branch was that player working as a nickel defender. He's only 6 feet and 190 pounds, and he ran a disappointing 4.58 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, but he is a tremendous football player at a position that's becoming a priority for most teams.

Reid: Penn State's Joey Porter Jr. was considered to be one of the best cornerbacks in this class and projected as a top-20 pick. My fourth-ranked corner and No. 16 prospect, he has the length, technique and disruption ability at the catch point to be a high-end starter. And I don't think he will last long in the second round.


Make one prediction for Day 2.

McShay: We only saw one tight end in the first round, with Kincaid going to the Bills. But I think we see five -- maybe even six -- get picked Friday night. This list includes Mayer, Oregon State's Luke Musgrave, Iowa's Sam LaPorta, South Dakota State's Tucker Kraft and Penn State's Brenton Strange. The sixth would be Georgia's 6-foot-7 Darnell Washington, though I've heard some teams are concerned with his knee injury.

Miller: We talked about the best fit for Levis, but my Day 2 prediction is that Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker will be drafted before him. Hooker impressed scouts during pre-draft visits and interviews, and he has a lot of really good traits. He is an older prospect at 25 years old (Levis is 24) and coming off a torn ACL, but Hooker's pre-draft process put him in a situation where being selected ahead of Levis would not surprise me.

Reid: Porter will be the first pick off of the board to start Day 2 ... and go to the team where his dad played. He would help address the hole at cornerback with the Steelers at great value. Porter is a long and aggressive press corner who fits well in the team's scheme, and he has the potential to be a starter very early on in his career.