Ranking NFL rosters for the 2023 season: Strengths, weaknesses

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With the NFL in a quiet period between post-draft minicamps and preseason training camps, it's time to reassess how all 32 teams built -- and maintained -- their rosters this offseason. Which franchises retained their high-end talent from last season, added impact contributors in free agency and found potential starters in April's draft? And on the flip side, which teams actually are in worse shape than in 2022?

We asked ESPN football analysts Mike Clay and Seth Walder to rank NFL rosters from 1 to 32, then combined rankings to come up with our list of the league's best -- and worst. We asked them to rate each roster based on the talent, age and production of the players, not taking into account how some coaching staffs can squeeze the best out of their talent. Clay's rankings are powered by his 2023 projections, which include detailed stats and score predictions for every team.

Clay detailed the strongest and weakest units for all 32 squads, while Walder picked X factors to watch and nonstarters to know across the league. The projected starting lineups below are via Clay's projections. Here's how each roster stacks up:

Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Strongest unit: Quarterback. Does this even need an explanation? Kansas City's franchise player, Patrick Mahomes, has already won league MVP, the Super Bowl and the Super Bowl MVP two times each. He achieved all three of those last season -- despite the 2022 offseason departure of elite wide receiver Tyreek Hill -- cementing himself as the league's best player. At only 27 years old, Mahomes' dominant reign is far from over. -- Mike Clay

Weakest unit: Safety. The Chiefs said goodbye to Tyrann Mathieu after the 2021 season and moved on from Juan Thornhill this past offseason. Justin Reid, who replaced Mathieu and played 97% of the snaps last season, is a good starter, but the defense will be counting on journeyman Mike Edwards, second-year Bryan Cook or Day 3 rookie Chamarri Conner to step into the other starting role. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: LT Donovan Smith. Letting Orlando Brown Jr. walk in free agency and replacing him with Smith, who had the second-worst pass block win rate among tackles last season and the third-highest penalty rate among offensive linemen with at least 500 offensive snaps, was certainly a choice. Considering who will be playing behind him, Smith's play will be extremely high leverage. -- Seth Walder

Nonstarter to know: WR Justyn Ross. In 2018, Ross led college football with an absurd 5.1 yards per route run. Injuries have derailed his career, but it's hard to forget those numbers. -- Walder

2. Philadelphia Eagles

Strongest unit: Offensive line. Four starters return, with Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson forming an elite duo at tackle, Jason Kelce back for one more season at the pivot, and Landon Dickerson locked in at left guard. Isaac Seumalo was the only offseason departure, but GM Howie Roseman was ready, having selected Cam Jurgens (Kelce's eventual replacement) in the second round of the 2022 draft. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Off-ball linebacker and safety (tie). At linebacker, T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White are out and will be replaced by Nicholas Morrow, Nakobe Dean and Davion Taylor. At safety, Terrell Edmunds and Reed Blankenship are competing to replace Marcus Epps and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Morrow and Edmunds are solid players who combined to play 1,892 snaps last season, and Dean has upside as a 2022 Day 2 draft pick, but it's a bit of a concern when your conference champion-winning defense loses five of its top nine snap-getters. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry. They were elite a season ago, but corners are awfully finicky from year to year, and even stars can't always be relied upon. If they maintain their current level of play, the Eagles' defense will be mighty again, but it's no guarantee. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: S Sydney Brown. Brown -- a rookie third-round pick -- allowed a 27 QBR when targeted last season at Illinois. No matter what, the Eagles will have turnover at safety after losing Gardner-Johnson and Epps this offseason. -- Walder

3. Buffalo Bills

Strongest unit: Safety. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer have been nothing short of elite since teaming up in Buffalo in 2017. Both are 32 years old and missed substantial time in 2022, so perhaps a slip in play could be in store. But Buffalo will have a healthy Damar Hamlin and newcomer Taylor Rapp (who played 90% of the Rams' defensive snaps in 2022) as quality depth. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Wide receiver depth. Stefon Diggs is elite, but No. 2 WR Gabe Davis was limited to a situational deep-threat role for most of 2022. Davis is back, but Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder are gone and will be "replaced" by journeymen Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield and Day 3 fliers Khalil Shakir and Justin Shorter. Buffalo will need a big rookie season from versatile tight end Dalton Kincaid. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Two years ago they fueled the league's best defense, but in 2022 they combined for just 14 games played. Both are up in there in age, but do they have one more strong season left in them? -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: WR Deonte Harty. In 2021, Harty was efficient with a 30% target rate and a 2.9 yards per route run that trailed only those of Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams. Injuries limited him in 2022, but those numbers still have me intrigued. -- Walder

4. Miami Dolphins

Strongest unit: Cornerback. Miami's defense is elite on paper, with the highlight being a loaded cornerback room after the offseason acquisition of Jalen Ramsey. The versatile playmaker will slot in opposite former All-Pro Xavien Howard. Second-year slot man Kader Kohou looks like a gem find after playing 80% of the defensive snaps as an undrafted rookie. Nik Needham (once healthy) and second-round rookie Cam Smith add depth. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Tight end. Miami had standout Mike Gesicki on the roster last season and still ranked 31st in tight end targets. Gesicki is gone, leaving journeymen Durham Smythe, Eric Saubert and Tyler Kroft to battle for snaps. The trio combined for 227 catches in 250 combined games and will spend a lot of time blocking in 2023. Fortunately for the Dolphins, tight end isn't a priority position in coach Mike McDaniel's offense. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: The offensive line, collectively. Other than quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's health, it's really the one other aspect that could sink the team. According to NFL Next Gen Stats data, the Miami O-line ranked 24th in pass block win rate a year ago. The unit doesn't need to be elite, but it can't afford to be worse than that. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: CB Nik Needham. He's coming off an Achilles injury, but Needham played well in a limited sample of 148 coverage snaps last season. He allowed a 10% target rate, the lowest by any corner with at least 50 coverage snaps in 2022, per NFL Next Gen Stats info. -- Walder

5. Cincinnati Bengals

Strongest unit: Wide receiver. The Bengals' wideouts paced the NFL in receiving touchdowns (25) last season, despite superstar duo Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both missing substantial game action (not to mention that the Bengals played only 16 games). Chase, 23, and Higgins, 24, are early in their prime and form the league's best WR duo, whereas veteran Tyler Boyd remains one of the NFL's top slot receivers. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Safety. Cincinnati's safety position is in transition after Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell departed during free agency. The succession plan will include 2022 No. 31 pick Dax Hill (141 snaps), ex-Rams starter Nick Scott and third-round rookie Jordan Battle. The future might be bright, but some development will be required. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: RT Jonah Williams. According to ESPN Analytics research, his 84% pass block win rate last season ranked 55th out of 64 tackles, and he has never posted an average PBWR for a tackle. Williams is on the right side now, but unless he improves on his past performance, he's still a weakness in quarterback Joe Burrow's protection. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: RB Chase Brown. I'm keeping an eye on Brown, a fifth-round pick who forced 73 missed tackles (fourth-most in FBS) last season at Illinois, because Joe Mixon averaged between minus -0.2 and 0.2 rush yards over expectation per carry in the past four seasons. Brown is cheaper and could be Mixon's successor. -- Walder

6. Dallas Cowboys

Strongest unit: Edge rusher. Micah Parsons began his career in a hybrid LB/ED role, but he's settled in as one of the league's top edge rushers (his 29.7% pass rush win rate was the best among edge defenders in 2022). DeMarcus Lawrence would be the top edge on most defenses, and this unit also returns some quality depth (Dorance Armstrong, Sam Williams, Dante Fowler Jr.) after leading the NFL in pass rush wins (194) and tying for first in sacks (38.0) last season. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Interior defensive line. Dallas has struggled to solve its defensive line problem in recent years. While we can't anoint first-round pick Mazi Smith as an impact player before seeing him in an NFL game, there's hope for the unit because it will feature Osa Odighizuwa, Neville Gallimore, Johnathan Hankins, Quinton Bohanna, Chauncey Golston and perhaps fourth-round rookie Viliami Fehoko. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: CB Stephon Gilmore. Since his first season in New England in 2017, Gilmore has never allowed more than 1.2 yards per coverage snap in a single season (average for an outside CB) and has allowed 1.0 on average in that span, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But he isn't just consistent; he offers upside. He has two seasons with minus-30 EPA allowed, most notably his 2019 DPOY season. A good-to-great Gilmore would take the Cowboys' defense from threatening to scary. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: Edge Sam Williams. The 2022 second-round pick only rushed the passer 141 times last season, but he posted a 20% pass rush win rate at edge when he did, according to ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats. That would have ranked 12th at the position had he qualified and kept up that pace. -- Walder

7. Los Angeles Chargers

Strongest unit: Edge rusher. Joey Bosa was limited to two full games during an injury-plagued 2022 season, but he was a superstar during his first six seasons (58 sacks) and is at the prime age of 27. Opposite him will be one of the league's best edge rushers of the last decade, Khalil Mack. Mack is now 32 years old but remained effective last season (82% of snaps, eight sacks). Versatile second-round rookie Tuli Tuipulotu brings some much-needed depth. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Interior defensive line. While the edge room looks great, the interior line remains shaky. Sebastian Joseph-Day, Austin Johnson and Morgan Fox are all back from 2022's underwhelming unit, with the top depth additions to the group 33-year-old Nick Williams and sixth-round rookie Scott Matlock. The Chargers allowed a league-worst 5.6 yards per carry to running backs and were last in rush EPA last season. Things may not improve much in 2023. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. This team has the roster to be a top-five (or better) offense. Under previous OC Joe Lombardi that never materialized, and the question now is whether Moore can unleash quarterback Justin Herbert and this offense's true potential. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: Edge Tuli Tuipulotu. He recorded 13.5 sacks a year ago for USC and could be a long-term replacement for Mack. -- Walder

8. San Francisco 49ers

Strongest unit: Defensive front seven. As if a front seven that already included LBs Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, edge rusher Nick Bosa and DT Arik Armstead wasn't enough, the 49ers made a huge free agency splash by signing ex-Eagle Javon Hargrave to a four-year, $84 million contract. Led by Bosa -- the 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year and sack leader (18.5) -- the Niners are once again loaded on defense. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Offensive line. OT Trent Williams is an absolute superstar, but that's where the certainties end on this line. Interior linemen Aaron Banks, Spencer Burford, Jon Feliciano and Jake Brendel all posted below-average Pro Football Focus grades last season, and only starting center Brendel was above average in pass and run block win rates. Right tackle is a major question mark, with 2020 fifth-round pick Colton McKivitz (145 snaps over the past two seasons) the favorite to replace free agent departure Mike McGlinchey. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: QB Brock Purdy. As good as he was last season (65.6 QBR), we're still talking about a seventh-round quarterback with fewer than 200 dropbacks to his name. Throw in his elbow injury, and the variance for Purdy is awfully high. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: RB Elijah Mitchell. Christian McCaffrey is certainly the top running back in San Francisco, but in terms of running the ball, Mitchell was more efficient last season. He recorded 1.2 rushing yards over expectation per carry in his limited playing time, compared to McCaffrey's 0.3 RYOE per carry while playing for the 49ers, per NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

9. Cleveland Browns

Strongest unit: Offensive line. Cleveland will return all five starters to arguably the league's best offensive line. Tackles Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin are terrific pass blockers, center Ethan Pocic was elite in both the pass and run game last season, and guards Joel Bitonio (who didn't miss a single snap last season) and Wyatt Teller are terrific. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Defensive tackle depth. This roster is, at least, solid across the board, leaving me to choose a position at which Cleveland added a high-impact player (Dalvin Tomlinson). That addition is huge, but depth remains problematic, with Jordan Elliott, Perrion Winfrey, Maurice Hurst and rookie Siaki Ika among those battling for work. This is a concern for a defense that ranked 31st in rushing EPA allowed in 2022. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: QB Deshaun Watson. Obvious, sure. But the range of outcomes here is absolutely massive for both Watson and the roster, which is otherwise strong outside of the huge question at quarterback. If Watson can get back to his level of play even from 2020, when he led the Texans to a 4-12 record but had a 63.7 QBR, the Browns could be Super Bowl contenders. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: DT Siaki Ika. The third-round pick played mostly at 0- and 2/2i-techniques at Baylor, according to Sports Info Solutions tracking, and he generated 30 pressures from those spots over the past two seasons -- second most among all FBS players in that span. -- Walder

10. New York Jets

Strongest unit: Cornerback. Reigning defensive Rookie of the Year and first-team All-Pro Sauce Gardner is already arguably the league's best corner. Running mate D.J. Reed is one of the league's most underrated defensive backs, and former fifth-round flier Michael Carter has developed into a solid slot man. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Offensive tackle. The Jets' roster is pretty solid across the board, but the uncertainty at offensive tackle is a red flag, especially with protecting new QB Aaron Rodgers a top priority. There's potential here as LT Duane Brown is a former star, and Mekhi Becton is a 2020 first-round pick. But Brown's play slipped in 2022 and he's now 37 years old, while injuries have limited Becton to 48 snaps the past two seasons. Billy Turner and Max Mitchell are the contingency plan. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: Edge Carl Lawson. The Jets' defense last year was built on exceptional corner play. But it still needs better outside pass rush. Lawson is now two years removed from an Achilles injury that robbed him of his 2021 season and is the most likely Jets outside rusher to hit double-digit sacks. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: Edge Bryce Huff. He didn't play enough to qualify, but if he had, his 31% pass rush win rate at edge would have led the NFL last season, per ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

11. Baltimore Ravens

Strongest unit: Tight end. A massive 44% of Baltimore's targets were directed to tight ends last season. Superstar Mark Andrews (25%) was responsible for most of that, but Isaiah Likely (12%) was a rare impact player as a rookie. Charlie Kolar, a 6-foot-7 blocking TE, fills out the unit. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Cornerback depth. Baltimore has long been a defensive powerhouse, but that is in serious doubt this season, with concern spots at all levels. In fact, I easily could've gone with edge rusher or interior DL here. Marlon Humphrey is a terrific No. 1 corner, but Marcus Peters' offseason departure leaves Brandon Stephens, Damarion Williams and Rock Ya-Sin as the top candidates for No. 2 and nickel duties. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: The wide receiver room. You could make the case for Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers or Odell Beckham Jr. being in this spot. All three present upsides and come with their own risks and unknowns. Baltimore's season may rest on what it gets out of those three wideouts. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: OL Patrick Mekari. In 358 snaps across both tackle positions last year, Mekari fared well. He posted 90% and 81% pass block and run block win rates, respectively -- both above average for the position, per ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

12. Seattle Seahawks

Strongest unit: Wide receiver. Seattle's roster has several elite units, but wideout gets the nod. DK Metcalf (top-10 in receiving yards and TDs over the last three seasons) and Tyler Lockett (1,000-plus yards and eight-plus TDs in five straight seasons) form an elite duo. The unit got even better when Seattle spent its first-round pick in April's draft on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This could be the league's best trio by next season's end. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Edge rusher depth. This was not easy. The Seahawks have no overwhelmingly poor units, and even the edge rusher position has a good player in Uchenna Nwosu. The reason for the concern here is the lack of proven commodities behind Nwosu, though the good news is that there is plenty of pedigree; Darrell Taylor (2020), Derick Hall (2023) and Boye Mafe (2022) were all selected in the second round of recent drafts. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: Edge Darrell Taylor. With Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon at corner and Bobby Wagner back at linebacker, the Seahawks defense has potential. But it needs better pass-rush. New DT Dre'Mont Jones will be part of the solution, but better play from Taylor -- who had a below average 13% PRWR at edge last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats -- would go a long way. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: CB Mike Jackson. The 2019 fifth-round pick allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap last season as a 17-game starter, better than the 1.2 league average for corners. -- Walder

13. Denver Broncos

Strongest unit: Offensive tackle. Garett Bolles is back after a broken leg cost one of the league's better left tackles all but five games last season. He'll be joined in the starting lineup by newcomer Mike McGlinchey, who landed a five-year, $87.5 million contract during the offseason. Swing tackle Cameron Fleming adds quality depth after playing well on 925 snaps across both LT and RT last season. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Edge rusher. Randy Gregory has flashed at times, but the seven-year veteran has managed one full season (2018), has yet to clear six sacks in a single campaign and played just 177 snaps in six games in 2022. Frank Clark's arrival helps, though the veteran hasn't cleared six sacks in a season since 2019. Baron Browning, Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto are next up on the depth chart. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: QB Russell Wilson. With strong play at quarterback, this is a good team. But if all coach Sean Payton gets is the 2022 version of Wilson, that roster will be for naught. Even not at his best in 2021, Wilson finished 10th in QBR, and at 34 years old, there's still a decent chance of a mini-resurgence from him. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: Edge Nik Bonitto. He had just 1.5 sacks in his rookie season but posted a 16% pass rush win rate at edge, average for the position. I'm mostly intrigued by his FBS-leading 18% pressure rate in 2021. -- Walder

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

Strongest unit: Edge rusher. T.J. Watt missed a chunk of last season, but the 28-year-old remained an impact player when healthy (22.1% pass rush win rate) and led the NFL with 70.5 sacks over the last five seasons. Running mate Alex Highsmith finished sixth in the league with 14.5 sacks last season. Underrated veteran Markus Golden (who has three 10-plus sack seasons) and youngsters DeMarvin Leal and Nick Herbig provide solid depth. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Off-ball linebacker. The Steelers made a full-on line change at inside linebacker during free agency, replacing Myles Jack, Devin Bush and Robert Spillane with Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts and Tanner Muse. Holcomb has been solid as an every-down player in Washington the last two seasons, but Roberts and Muse have primarily been rotational players. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: WR George Pickens. His 99 Catch Score fueled a successful rookie year and gave Pickens elite upside if he can develop as a route runner and get open more frequently. He posted a below-average 48 Open Score last season, according to ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: OLB Nick Herbig. At Wisconsin last season, Herbig had 11 sacks along with strong pressure rates. That production gave him the 10th-highest sack projection in the entire 2023 draft class, according to my model, despite being a fourth-round pick. -- Walder

15. Jacksonville Jaguars

Strongest unit: Quarterback. Year 2 is the breakout age for quarterbacks, and that was on display in Jacksonville last season. Trevor Lawrence finished 2022 top 10 in all significant QB counting stats (including rushing categories) and led Jacksonville to a surprise AFC South title and a playoff win. The offseason addition of Calvin Ridley should get Lawrence to another level in 2023. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Offensive line. Could the line be the undoing for a Jacksonville offense seemingly on the rise? Right tackle Jawaan Taylor signed with the Chiefs during free agency, and left tackle Cam Robinson faces a PED suspension. That leaves two-year reserve Walker Little and first-round rookie Anton Harrison to open the season as the starting tackles. An interior line that includes Ben Bartch, Luke Fortner and Brandon Scherff (coming off arguably his worst pro season) doesn't move the needle. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: The offensive tackles. With Robinson facing a multi-game suspension, the Jaguars will likely rely on unproven Little and Harrison at tackle to start the season. That's a huge question mark for a team with a young franchise QB and high expectations. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: RB D'Ernest Johnson. He's buried on the depth chart, but don't sleep on him: Johnson recorded 145 rush yards over expectation in 2021, fourth-most among running backs that year, on just 100 carries. -- Walder

16. Minnesota Vikings

Strongest unit: Offensive tackle. Minnesota has spent a ton of draft capital on the O-line in recent years, and it's starting to pay off. LT Christian Darrisaw enjoyed a breakout 2022 season, and only Trent Williams had the highest PFF grade among tackles. RT Brian O'Neill checked in ninth over at PFF, and his 94.7% pass block win rate was third among tackles last season. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Cornerback. Patrick Peterson, Chandon Sullivan, Cameron Dantzler and Duke Shelley were Minnesota's top four corners in 2022 snaps, and none are on the 2023 roster. Byron Murphy Jr. was a quality replacement for Peterson atop the depth chart, but the rest of the room is unproven, with a combined 297 NFL snaps. Recent Day 2 and 3 draft picks Akayleb Evans, Andrew Booth Jr. and Mekhi Blackmon are ticketed for massive roles this season. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: CBs Akayleb Evans and Andrew Booth Jr.. I'm echoing Mike here, but that pair of young, unproven corners are the clear leverage point for this team. If they struggle, the defense will too. If they succeed, the Vikings will suddenly be a team with solid pass-rush and coverage abilities. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: RB DeWayne McBride. The rookie seventh-round pick led the FBS in rushing yards per game and was fifth in rushing yards after contact last season. While Alexander Mattison is the new starter, he a recorded negative-42 rush yards over expectation last season according to NFL Next Gen Stats, so don't be stunned if McBride gets a look. -- Walder

17. Detroit Lions

Strongest unit: Offensive line. Detroit will return its elite line, which includes tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell, center Frank Ragnow and left guard Jonah Jackson. Starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai (back) missed all of 2022, but he's expected back. The team also added old friend Graham Glasgow as insurance. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Defensive tackle. Detroit finished 31st in defensive EPA last season, and while some upgrades were made on that side of the ball, plenty of voids remain. That includes a DT position led by Alim McNeill, Isaiah Buggs, Benito Jones, versatile John Cominsky, newcomers Christian Covington and third-round rookie Brodric Martin. Expect Detroit to get creative with its stacked edge rusher room this season. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: CB Cameron Sutton. The Lions pass defense simply has to improve next season, and they brought in Sutton to be part of the change. He allowed just 0.8 yards per coverage snap last year, which was eighth-best among outside CBs, per NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: QB Hendon Hooker. He was a third-round pick and is coming off a torn ACL from last November. But any potential successor at quarterback is worth keeping an eye on. -- Walder

18. New York Giants

Strongest unit: Interior defensive line. The Giants' defense struggled last season (28th overall and 29th against the run in EPA), which was disappointing considering it is one of the league's top interior D-lines on paper. Leonard Williams is a certified superstar, and Dexter Lawrence was arguably better in 2022. Rakeem Nunez-Roches and underrated A'Shawn Robinson were solid offseason additions and will play sizable roles. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Wide receiver. The question marks here are massive. Here is who is competing: Wan'Dale Robinson (torn ACL in Week 11), Sterling Shepard (torn ACL in Week 3), Parris Campbell (has missed 34 games in four seasons), Jamison Crowder (24 missed games over the last three seasons), Darius Slayton (was on the trade block last offseason), Isaiah Hodgins (13 appearances in three seasons) and Jalin Hyatt (third-round rookie). Will quantity over quality work out? We'll see. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: RT Evan Neal. His rookie season was one to forget, ranking 58th and 54th (out of 64) in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively per ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats. With an excellent LT in Andrew Thomas on the other side, if Neal can play well and give the Giants two strong tackles, that would go a long way in supporting quarterback Daniel Jones. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: WR Sterling Shepard. Every Giants fan knows this one, but Shepard is trying to make a comeback from an ACL tear last year, which came shortly after his comeback from an Achilles the year before. But if healthy, Shepard could play an important role in a receiver room with questions. -- Walder

19. New Orleans Saints

Strongest unit: Defensive Back 7. The Saints have some concerns up front (more on that in a second), but the combination of their off-ball LBs (Demario Davis and Pete Werner), cornerbacks (Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo, Bradley Roby, Alontae Taylor) and safeties (Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu) is one of the league's best. Davis is now 34 years old, but his play has yet to slip, and Lattimore is a candidate for a big rebound after an injury-plagued 2022 season. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Defensive tackle. David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle and Kentavius Street were the top snap-getters at DT for New Orleans last season, and all three left via free agency. Journeymen rotational players Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd were brought in as veteran replacements, and the team will be asking a lot of first-round rookie Bryan Bresee. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: WR Michael Thomas. We've been here before, but the promise of Thomas -- who ranked in the top-six in yards per route run in 2017, 2018 and 2019 -- teaming up with Chris Olave means the Saints offense could break right. But that's if Thomas can stay healthy and return to anything near his old level of play. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: WR A.T. Perry. The sixth-round pick was All-ACC in each of the past two seasons. He led all Power 5 receivers with 531 receiving yards on go routes over the last two years. -- Walder

20. New England Patriots

Strongest unit: Interior offensive line. Center David Andrews' 97.5% pass block win rate last season trailed only Creed Humphrey for best at the position. RG Mike Onwenu was a stellar find in the sixth round in 2020, and the 25-year-old has settled in as one of the league's top guards. Cole Strange struggled as a run blocker as a rookie, but the 2022 first-round pick was solid as a pass-blocker and a candidate for a second-year leap. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Quarterback. The Patriots' roster is, at worst, passable in most areas, so I'll address an unproven QB position. Mac Jones was terrific as a rookie but regressed last season (which even led to a brief benching) and missed time with an injury. By season's end, Jones's 36.1 QBR ranked 28th out of 31 quarterbacks (Bailey Zappe was worse at 34.5). It wouldn't be a shock if 2022 proved a fluke due to the offense's lack of direction, so perhaps new playcaller Bill O'Brien will get Jones back on track. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. Henry quietly posted a 68 Open Score last season, fourth-best among tight ends and perhaps a sign of increased productivity to come. Gesicki didn't fit in the Mike McDaniel offense in Miami but is still the same player that recorded over 700 yards in 2020 and 2021. The Patriots lack targets at WR, but perhaps the two tight ends will be a productive supporting cast for Jones. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: OL Calvin Anderson. In 420 snaps at left tackle with the Broncos last season, Anderson showed major improvement in pass protection, posting a 91% pass block win rate, above average for the position. That makes him valuable depth. -- Walder

21. Las Vegas Raiders

Strongest unit: Edge rusher. Maxx Crosby (37.5 sacks during his first four seasons) has emerged as one of the league's best pass-rushers. Chandler Jones, 33, wasn't quite as dominant as usual in 2022, but he's still a difference-maker. Even if Jones takes another step back, waiting in the wings is first-round rookie Tyree Wilson. -- Clay

Weakest unit: The rest of the defense. The Raiders finished 30th in defensive EPA last season (last against the pass), and it's possible the unit may be worse in 2023. Bilal Nichols and Jerry Tillery return as defensive tackles, Divine Deablo and Robert Spillane are the top linebackers, cornerback is loaded with journeymen backups behind Nate Hobbs, and safety at least has some potential in the form of Tre'von Moehrig and Eagles' 2022 snap leader Marcus Epps. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: Edge Tyree Wilson. The Raiders offense will score. The question is: Can the defense stop anyone? On paper, it's hard to see how it will. But the quickest path to success probably runs through Wilson. If he can burst into the NFL with immediate production, he and Crosby would make a tough duo for opposing quarterbacks. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: OL Justin Herron. The Raiders traded for him last year, though he tore his ACL in October shortly thereafter. Herron recorded a 90% pass block win rate at tackle (above average) in 2020, his rookie season. He wasn't as good the following year, but anyone that was solid in pass protection right away seems like good depth to have. -- Walder

22. Chicago Bears

Strongest unit: Off-ball linebacker. Chicago made inside linebacker a major offseason priority -- signing Tremaine Edmunds (four years, $72 million) and T.J. Edwards (three years, $19.5 million) -- so it certainly should be one of its top units. They will step into substantial roles in place of departures Nicholas Morrow (free agent) and Roquan Smith (traded last season) in coach Matt Eberflus' 3-4 front. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Defensive front. You could argue that Chicago has a bottom three unit at interior DL and edge rusher. The team spent Day 2 picks on DTs Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens as competition for veterans Justin Jones, Andrew Billings and DeMarcus Walker. Along the edge, Rasheem Green and Terrell Lewis were signed as competition for Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson. This isn't ideal for a Bears defense last in both EPA and points allowed (27.2) last season. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: CBs Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson. Gordon and Johnson each allowed worse-than-average yards per coverage snap last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And Stevenson is a rookie. But like Mike mentioned: The Bears have no pass-rush, so if this defense is going to succeed, it's going to need a big season from its DBs. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: LB Jack Sanborn. The Bears invested heavily in the linebacker position this offseason, but they also may have found a useful player in Sanborn, a 2022 UDFA who posted a 40% run stop win rate (in limited playing time), which would have ranked sixth among LBs had he qualified, according to ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

23. Green Bay Packers

Strongest unit: Cornerback. Jaire Alexander is one of the league's best cornerbacks and anchors a terrific Green Bay CB room. Eric Stokes -- a 2021 first-round pick -- continues to develop after missing the second half of 2022 with a foot injury. Rasul Douglas has settled in as a solid, underrated corner. Keisean Nixon made some noise late last season and will make a play for primary slot duties. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Established pass-catchers. Green Bay's projected top seven wide receivers and top two tight ends were all drafted in 2022 or 2023. That's unheard of, and while there's long-term potential here, none are first-rounders, and the group is very inexperienced. Second-year receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs and rookies Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are all ticketed for massive 2023 roles. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: OT David Bakhtiari. He played in just 55% of Green Bay's offensive snaps last year, but when on the field, he's still got it. A 95% pass block win rate in line with his career average back to 2017 that would help out quarterback Jordan Love quite a bit. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: OL Zach Tom. A fourth-round pick in 2022, Tom played 462 snaps last season, most of which came at LT. He recorded a well-above-average 93% pass block win rate at tackle when he was there -- impressive for a rookie. -- Walder

24. Washington Commanders

Strongest unit: Defensive line. Washington's starting defensive line is comprised of four first-round picks, with Jonathan Allen (2017) and Daron Payne (2018) inside and Montez Sweat (2019) and Chase Young (2020) on the edge. The first three rarely left the field and combined for 27 sacks last season. Young has flashed superstar upside, but he has appeared in only three games since tearing his ACL in Week 10 in 2021. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Quarterback. Washington seems to have an eyebrow-raising amount of confidence in Sam Howell -- a 2022 fifth-round pick who attempted 19 passes as a rookie. Perhaps the Commanders have found a diamond in the rough, but he's an unknown. Jacoby Brissett was brought in as veteran competition, and while he's coming off a career year, the 30-year-old is more a "stop gap" than a "solid starter." -- Clay

X factor for 2023: DE Chase Young. The Commanders showed their understandable reservations about Young when they declined to pick up his fifth-year option. Young still is the player that ranked seventh in pass rush win rate at edge (23%) as a rookie, and his 2021 was better than his 1.5-sack total indicated, with a 19% PRWR at edge, according to ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: QB Jacoby Brissett. Yes, the Commanders want Howell to succeed. But Brissett is better than the average bridge QB: He ranked eighth in QBR last season (60) with the Browns and substantially outplayed Watson. -- Walder

25. Carolina Panthers

Strongest unit: Off-ball linebacker. Good, consistent linebackers are hard to find, but Carolina has found one in extremely-underrated Shaq Thompson, who has registered 100-plus tackles in four straight seasons. He'll be joined by versatile LB/ED Frankie Luvu, who has bloomed since signing with Carolina in 2021. The depth is shaky, but a deep safety room will help in that department. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Wide receiver. Carolina traded away DJ Moore in the deal for eventual No. 1 draft pick Bryce Young. That left a major hole at wide receiver, which was "filled" by DJ Chark (19 missed games over the last two seasons) and 32-year-old Adam Thielen. The team also spent a second-round pick on Jonathan Mingo and will hope youngsters Terrace Marshall Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. make a leap. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: WR Jonathan Mingo. Dealing Moore left the Panthers awfully bare at wide receiver. They have veterans like Thielen and Chark in as stop-gaps, but especially with no first-round pick in 2024, Mingo is a huge X factor for this team both this season and going forward. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: WR Terrace Marshall Jr. In addition to Mingo, Marshall is the other long-term hope for this receiver group. And there's reason for hope: He posted a 58 (above average) Open Score in 2022, a promising sign. -- Walder

26. Atlanta Falcons

Strongest unit: Interior defensive line. I had quite a few good options here, including running back and offensive line, but I'll give the nod to Atlanta's much-improved D-line. Two-time Pro Bowler Grady Jarrett is the notable incumbent and one of the anchors of this group. Six-time Pro Bowler Calais Campbell is now 36 years old, but he's fresh off another strong season and will work from the edge and inside. New DC Ryan Nielsen brought David Onyemata over from New Orleans, and he'll play a big role inside. This is a huge upgrade for a defense that was 29th in EPA last season. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Quarterback. Atlanta is undoubtedly building around its run game, and that was evidenced by its failure to upgrade on 2022 third-round flier Desmond Ridder. The 23-year-old attempted 115 passes as a rookie, and his only two TDs came against Tampa Bay's reserves in Week 18. If Ridder struggles, veteran Taylor Heinicke (career 34 TDs and 24 INTs) is the next man up and offers little reason for optimism. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: CB A.J. Terrell. In 2021, Terrell allowed fewer EPA as the nearest defender (-29.4) than any other corner in the league, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But last year, he gave up more EPA (28.3) than any other corner in the league. That's a wild swing. But corners are notoriously variant, and we know Terrell can be elite. The question is: Will he be elite again in 2023? -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: RB Tyler Allgeier. He may be second-string now, but do not forget about him behind first-round pick Bijan Robinson. Allgeier recorded 154 rushing yards over expectation in 2022, eighth-most among all running backs, per NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Strongest unit: Wide receiver. There aren't many better one-two punches at wide receiver than Mike Evans (at least 1,000 receiving yards in all nine NFL seasons) and Chris Godwin (1,023 receiving yards over the last three of four years despite 11 missing games). Russell Gage's first season in Tampa Bay wasn't inspiring, but he's a quality slot man with 50-plus catches in three straight campaigns. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Quarterback. Tom Brady has retired, leaving 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask to battle with journeyman Baker Mayfield for the team's starting gig. Mayfield's career has been quite the roller coaster, and while he flashed a bit in Los Angeles last season, his 24.5 QBR was dead last among 31 qualified QBs. Trask was effective during his time at Florida but has attempted nine NFL passes and remains an unknown. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: RT Luke Goedeke. The second-year player is kicking out to right tackle with Tristan Wirfs moving to the left side. Goedeke is essentially unproven at the position at the NFL level. For a team this low in our rankings, the Bucs have quite a talented roster...outside of quarterback. But if Mayfield or Trask can have two reliable tackles to go along with the strong receiver core, things might not be so bad in Tampa in 2023. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: DT Greg Gaines. Over the last two seasons, Gaines, who signed as a free agent this offseason after spending his first four seasons with the Rams, has posted a 10% pass rush win rate when lining up as a 0 or 1-technique, which ranks 11th out of 50 players with at least 100 plays with a win or loss from the position, according to ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats.. -- Walder

28. Tennessee Titans

Strongest unit: Safety. Kevin Byard has two All-Pro seasons on his résumé, yet it still feels like he's underrated. The 29-year-old is one of the top safeties in the league and is joined in the secondary by versatile Amani Hooker. Hooker's big breakout came in 2021 (he was PFF's third-highest graded safety then, whereas Byard ranked first) prior to an injury-plagued 2022 campaign. A healthy season from this duo will go a long way for a team that can use all the help it can get. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Offensive tackle and wide receiver (tie). This one was too close to call. Tennessee inexplicably handed former first-round pick Andre Dillard a three-year, $29 million contract to man left tackle after he failed to make an impact in four seasons in Philadelphia. Nicholas Petit-Frere is the right tackle after underwhelming as a rookie. At wide receiver, the team failed to add impact players behind unproven Treylon Burks and appears set to roll with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips and Chris Moore atop the depth chart. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: WR Treylon Burks. If he doesn't breakout, then we can give up on this offense. Burks had just 444 receiving yards last season, but his 1.83 yards per route run ranked 33rd out of 104 WRs with at least 200 routes run. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: RB Tyjae Spears. At 5-foot-10, 200 pounds Spears may be much smaller than Derrick Henry, but at some point the former Tulane RB could take over for the legendary back. -- Walder

29. Houston Texans

Strongest unit: Cornerback depth. I could've gone offensive tackle here, but it's hard not to love the look of this cornerback room. It starts with 2022 third-overall pick Derek Stingley Jr., who was a Day 1 starter but missed half of his rookie campaign with a hamstring injury. Fellow perimeter starter Steven Nelson is one of the league's most-underrated corners, and versatile Desmond King continues to lock down the slot. Newcomer Shaquill Griffin would start on many teams, and he joins Tavierre Thomas as solid competition and depth. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Wide receiver. Brandin Cooks is out, and 31-year-old Robert Woods is in as the veteran complement to emerging Nico Collins. John Metchie III (missed all of 2022 while battling leukemia) and Nathaniel Dell were Day 2 picks in the last two drafts and offer some youth/upside. This group has the potential to be solid, but Woods is on the decline (under 600 yards the last two seasons), and it's otherwise unproven. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: WR John Metchie III. He's an unknown after missing all of 2022, but he recorded over 1,100 yards and 2.4 yards per route run in 2021 at Alabama and is a second-round pick, so he has significant upside. As Mike mentioned, the Texans need help at receiver and a young player like Metchie (or Dell) has to step up. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: WR Nathaniel Dell. With the aforementioned weak receiver group ahead of him and the Texans likely to be behind frequently, Dell, a third-round rookie, could be thrust into the spotlight for a decent workload quickly. He led all FBS players in receiving yards (2,727) over the last two seasons. -- Walder

30. Indianapolis Colts

Strongest unit: Defensive tackle. I was tempted to go running back here, but I'll give the nod to the legend DeForest Buckner. The 29-year-old is coming off yet another elite season and has been as consistent as they come, playing 700-plus snaps in all seven NFL seasons and delivering at least seven sacks in five consecutive campaigns. He's joined in the trenches by underrated Grover Stewart and newcomer Taven Bryan, and versatile Tyquan Lewis and Dayo Odeyingbo will get some inside runs as well. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Secondary. The Colts moved on from Gilmore (second in defensive snaps on the Colts last season) and S Rodney McLeod (third) during the offseason while failing to make serious efforts to replace them. Kenny Moore II and Julian Blackmon are the best players in this secondary, and both are coming off injury-plagued seasons. Isaiah Rodgers was a strong bet to start opposite Moore, but he's unproven and likely facing a multi-game suspension for betting. Rodney Thomas II and recent Day 2 picks Julius Brents (2023) and Nick Cross (2022) must step up. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: LG Quenton Nelson. As a three-time first-team All-Pro, Nelson should be locked in as a bankable superstar. But his play dropped dramatically last season, with a 91% pass block win rate that ranked just 41st at guard, according to ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson could use a rebound year from his new guard. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: RB Deon Jackson (for his receiving skills). He averaged 1.7 yards per route run last year, eighth-best among RBs with at least 100 routes run, and had the fourth-highest RTM Overall Score among running backs. -- Walder

31. Los Angeles Rams

Strongest unit: Defensive tackle. Aaron Donald missed the last month and a half of the 2022 season due to injury, but he was still an absolute superstar prior to going down. Since entering the league in 2014, Donald leads the NFL in pass rush wins (his 476 are 98 more than any other player) and sacks (his 103 are 8.5 more than any other player). The 32-year-old is arguably the league's best defender. -- Clay

Weakest unit: The rest of the defense. Six defenders played 700-plus snaps for the Rams last season, and none remain on the roster. In fact, Ernest Jones (693) and Donald (593) are the only players who played more than half the snaps. Incredibly, the Rams signed zero notable veteran replacements and will rely on rookies and recent Day 3 fliers for a majority of their defensive snaps. It's hard to imagine this not being the league's worst defense, and that's with Donald in the fold. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: WR Van Jefferson. The Rams are trying to figure out what they have besides Donald, Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford. Jefferson recorded over 800 yards in 2021 but had just 369 in 11 games last season. Having him as a legitimate No. 2 wide receiver would give this offense potential. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: WR Tutu Atwell. He managed 1.8 yards per route run last season which is solid for a young player with limited playing time. -- Walder

32. Arizona Cardinals

Strongest unit: Safety. Budda Baker is Arizona's best player and one of the league's top and most-reliable safeties. In his five seasons as a full-time starter, Baker ranks eighth in the entire NFL, first among non-linebackers, with 574 tackles. Incredibly, running mate Jalen Thompson has more tackles than Baker over the last two seasons (231 to 209) and sits second among all safeties during the span. -- Clay

Weakest unit: Interior defensive line. Arizona has a lot of problem areas (it was tempting to go cornerback here), but the failure to replace departure Zach Allen makes interior D-line the lowlight. Leki Fotu, Jonathan Ledbetter and L.J. Collier were three of the worst-graded DTs by PFF last season, yet all three are positioned for substantial roles in this defense. Rashard Lawrence, Carlos Watkins, Kevin Strong and sixth-round rookie Dante Stills are also in the mix. -- Clay

X factor for 2023: TE Trey McBride. The Cardinals don't appear to be trying to win in 2023, so this season is about finding talent in 2024 and beyond. McBride had just 265 receiving yards last season, but it's not unusual for tight ends to have slow starts to their career. Arizona will begin to find out what it has this year. Targets should be available for the taking. -- Walder

Nonstarter to know: DT Dante Stills. Depth pick here but Stills, a rookie sixth-round pick, was a four-time all-Big 12 player at West Virginia, including a first-team selection in each of his last two seasons. -- Walder