Who are the biggest winners and losers from 2023 NBA free agency?
A week since players and teams could begin negotiating deals June 30, and a day after they could begin signing them at the conclusion of the league's moratorium period, free agency is already winding down. Of the top 25 free agents by my three-year projections, including a handful who avoided free agency by exercising player options and signing extensions, just four remain uncommitted -- all from the back half of the list: Terence Davis, Jaylen Nowell, Kelly Oubre Jr. and P.J. Washington.
While the NBA world continues to wait on potential trades involving All-Star guards James Harden and Damian Lillard that could shape the offseason as a whole, it's time to take a look at the players, teams and groups who have done the best for themselves so far in free agency.
Perhaps the biggest loser remains the same as since the blockbuster 2019 offseason: stars changing teams via free agency. Of the seven largest contracts handed out this summer, just one was to a player changing teams (Fred VanVleet going from the Toronto Raptors to the Houston Rockets). While free agency might no longer turn teams into contenders as it once did, there's still plenty of value to be had. Let's break it all down.
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Winner: Phoenix Suns
Admittedly, my feelings about the Bradley Beal trade would have been more positive had I expected Phoenix to clean up in free agency with only minimum contracts to offer.
The Suns will bring back four of the six players from last year's final roster who played at least 1,000 minutes for the team (Torrey Craig and Chris Paul being the two departures) while adding three players who saw at least 1,400 minutes of action elsewhere (Keita Bates-Diop, Drew Eubanks and Eric Gordon). The result could be a team that actually goes deeper than last year's group while having more star power with the addition of Beal.
Phoenix needs someone from the minimum group or holdover Cameron Payne to emerge as a reliable fifth closer alongside the group of Beal, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. The Suns also remain heavily dependent on staying healthy in the playoffs.
Still, Phoenix looks better equipped to handle the grind of the regular season, and the versatile Bates-Diop could be the 3-and-D wing the Suns were lacking in the 2023 playoffs if he can maintain last season's 39% 3-point shooting.
More generally, the minimum market has yielded better players than in past years. It will be worth watching whether that's a temporary change or a result of the NBA decreasing the value of the taxpayer midlevel exception and reducing the number of teams who can use it via the second apron in the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), meaning there are fewer avenues for veterans to get offers above the minimum.
Loser: Denver Nuggets
The reigning champions remain the favorites to repeat in terms of 2024 title odds at Caesars Sportsbook, but the path looks more challenging than it did a week ago. The Nuggets lost their two top reserves from the 2023 title team in Bruce Brown Jr. (Indiana Pacers) and Jeff Green (Houston Rockets).
Armed with the taxpayer midlevel exception as the only way to offer outside free agents more than the minimum, Denver used that to re-sign guard Reggie Jackson, who played just 18 minutes in the playoffs. Perhaps Jackson will solidify the backup point guard role that Brown played in the playoffs, and the Nuggets certainly have plenty of young options (including playoffs contributor Christian Braun) to fill in the contributions of Brown as a wing defender and Green as part of a second-unit frontcourt alongside Aaron Gordon.
The fact remains that Denver is now hoping for a capable bench to come together after knowing Brown and Green helped last season's reserves reach that level in the playoffs.
Winner: Players signed using cap space
With so little talent up for grabs, the players who did sign with cap-space teams generally made out -- at least in the short term -- with team-friendly concessions in later years.
Let's start with VanVleet, who was the only player to get maxed out in free agency (three years, $130 million) this summer, a remarkable accomplishment for a one-time All-Star. VanVleet was in the right place to capitalize on the Rockets' desire to contend next season without locking in a long-term contract.
Houston's other signings also did well in terms of annual value. Dillon Brooks, who wasn't wanted back by the Memphis Grizzlies, still got a huge raise on a reported four-year, $80 million deal from the Rockets. Meanwhile, center Jock Landale went from the minimum to an $8 million salary as part of a contract that has a significant non-guaranteed component.
Additionally, Brown cashed in on his role in the Nuggets' title run to go from getting $6.5 million in free agency a year ago to landing a two-year, $45 million deal with a team option for the second season from the Indiana Pacers.
To some degree, Houston and Indiana were paying up now to maintain flexibility down the road. Given the players' salaries won't likely go to zero after their current contracts, however, the free agents who landed those deals will almost certainly come out ahead long term.
Loser: Toronto Raptors
The flip side of stars rarely making it to free agency without re-signing is that teams almost never lose them for nothing in return. Such is the case with VanVleet after the Raptors chose to hold on to him for an ill-fated playoff push last season.
Instead of trading him at the deadline, Toronto gave up a first-round pick for center Jakob Poeltl, who ended up costing the team a new four-year, $80 million deal as an unrestricted free agent. With that deal in place, the Raptors had no realistic path to replacing VanVleet using cap space. They ended up adding Dennis Schroder using their non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
The result is a Toronto team that looks worse on paper than last year's play-in losers and has looming contract issues with starting forwards OG Anunoby (2024-25 player option) and Pascal Siakam both potentially unrestricted free agents next summer. The Raptors still haven't actively picked a direction. Free agency might choose one for them -- soon.
Winner: Restricted free agents
In recent years, restricted free agency has been hit hard by the number of deals completed shortly after the moratorium begins. Although the CBA now allows offer sheets to be signed during the moratorium, the clock on matching them doesn't begin until its conclusion, by which point the majority of free agents are off the board -- meaning teams won't always have a Plan B.
Already, we've seen one offer sheet (from the Dallas Mavericks to Matisse Thybulle, which the Portland Trail Blazers matched), which is as many as the past two summers combined. And the mere threat of one was enough for Brooklyn Nets forward Cameron Johnson to command a four-year, $108 million deal from the Nets that pays him market value.
Meanwhile, the potential of an offer sheet helped convince the Boston Celtics to strike a sign-and-trade sending forward Grant Williams to the Dallas Mavericks as a restricted free agent. At this point, Washington (Charlotte Hornets) is the only starting-caliber restricted free agent remaining who might be headed toward protracted negotiations like we've commonly seen in past years.
Slight loser: Teams using cap space to take on contracts via trade
The flip side of the cap-space equation is that saving it to use for other teams to shed unwanted salary didn't result in the same kind of premiums we've seen in the past. With the new CBA penalizing teams for not reaching the salary cap floor (90% of the cap) by the start of the season and so many holding cap space, the market favored teams looking to offload salary.
I liked the Detroit Pistons using cap space to add veteran Joe Harris entering the final season of his deal and the Utah Jazz taking on John Collins' contract, but Harris came with only second-round picks and the Jazz had to send out a pick for Collins.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, in particular, got little value for multiple trades renting out their cap space: moving up from No. 12 to No. 10 on draft night to add Davis Bertans and acquiring second-round picks to take on Patty Mills and Victor Oladipo, three players who will combine to make $33 million this season.
The one possible exception to this rule is San Antonio landing an unprotected swap of first-round picks in 2030 from the Dallas Mavericks to take back Reggie Bullock's $10.5 million salary, a deal that has considerable upside for the Spurs. But even that doesn't guarantee a first-round pick and cost the Spurs a couple of second-rounders to accomplish.