IN THE MODERN era that started in 1900, upward of 20,000 men have played Major League Baseball. Over that time, there have been well over 1 million individual months of baseball played. And toward the end of June, one person's awe-inspiring, day-after-day performance prompted a question that seemed worth trying to answer.
Is Shohei Ohtani having the best month in baseball history?
For such a simple question, drawing a definitive conclusion is not easy. Context is vital to every baseball argument, and comparing the greats of the 1920s -- the beginning of the game's live-ball era -- with players a century later muddies any discussion. It only gets harder when acknowledging the lack of integration before 1947 and the steroid-fueled joyrides of the 1990s and early 2000s.
But this is an exercise worth teasing out, if only as an excuse to marvel at what Ohtani, the Los Angeles Angels designated hitter/starting pitcher, did in June. Over 126 plate appearances, he batted .394 and led the major leagues in on-base percentage (.492), slugging percentage (.952), OPS (1.444), home runs (15), RBIs (29), extra-base hits (25) and total bases (99). He also threw 30â…“ sterling innings, with a 3.26 ERA, 37 strikeouts and an opponent slash line of .228/.302/.368. He has strung together incredible performances, but nothing like this.
Because of Ohtani's overwhelming offensive success -- only once before had he OPS'd higher than 1.095 for a month -- it is easiest to start there and return at the end to assess how much value his pitching added. Nearly every historically great month captured in Baseball-Reference.com's exhaustive Stathead database came with 100-plus plate appearances, so that is the threshold set for the numbers below, unless noted otherwise.
On the day he turns 29, let's dig in to see if what Ohtani did was simply set a new standard for himself -- or for the entire game.
WE'LL BEGIN TO whittle this down with rate stats. By OPS, there have been 22 better months than Ohtani's. (It's worth noting here that some otherworldly performances, like Barry Bonds' in September 2001 and April 2004, fell just short of the 100-plate appearance threshold.) Ohtani's sOPS+ -- a metric that compares players to the rest of the league, with 100 being average and the "s" standing for split, in this case by month -- was 286, a number bested by 25 players. (The last to do so: Jason Giambi, in July 2005, at 287.) In slugging percentage, Ohtani ranks behind just 13 monthly performances.
Looking at rate stats alone can skew the perception of a player's production, though, so let's bring some counting stats into the mix. Ohtani's home run numbers last month were among the most eye-popping of his stats, so we'll start there. Only 47 times in baseball history has a player hit at least 15 home runs in a month. Among that group, here are how Ohtani's June numbers stack up:
Batting average: 8th
On-base percentage: 8th
Slugging percentage: 5th
Total bases: T-5th
sOPS+: 5th
Ohtani is clearly in an elite class even among the cohort of players who hit such a high number of home runs in one calendar month. Only three players finished with a better OPS and sOPS+ than Ohtani while hitting 15-plus homers: Ruth in May 1928 (1.547 and 312), Hank Greenberg in September 1940 (1.504 and 323) and Bonds in May 2001 (1.583 and 310).
Let's use that OPS/sOPS+ combination for even sharper context. Of the 15 months in which a player matched Ohtani's OPS and sOPS+, no one recorded more total bases -- Ruth in May 1928 and Ohtani in June are tied atop the leaderboard with 99. Of the 28 players in baseball history with 500 home runs -- most of the greats of the game, with rare exceptions -- Ohtani's OPS and sOPS+ in June exceeded the best month of every one of those players but Bonds' May 2001, Ruth's May 1928, Frank Thomas in May 1994 and Ted Williams in July 1957.
It's impossible to deny the greatness of Ohtani in June. But the best month ever? So far, not yet.
TO OFFER ANOTHER data point, let's turn to WAR. Wins Above Replacement is a wonderful metric -- the best available conduit to account for the full breadth of a player's value -- though tricky in this case, because the available data used to calculate the stat goes back only half a century.
According to FanGraphs, Ohtani compiled 2.8 WAR in June with his bat -- a gaudy number, no doubt, but by no means an all-time mark. In the past 50 seasons, there have been 21 other months with at least 2.8 WAR, 20 compiled by offensive players, from Joe Morgan to Rickey Henderson to Wade Boggs to Thomas. The only pitching month to top 2.8 came from Roger Clemens in August 1998, when he threw 50 innings of 0.90 ERA ball, struck out 68, walked 10, didn't allow a home run, had an opponent sOPS+ of minus-1 and logged 3.1 WAR.
The list includes surprises -- Amos Otis in September 1978, Randy Winn in September 2005, Jason Kipnis in May 2015 and none more pronounced than a 25-year-old Houston Astros center fielder named Richard Hidalgo. He has the second-highest WAR month in the past 50 years at 3.2, propelled by a.477/.532/.953 slash line with 11 home runs and 32 RBIs over 28 games in September 2000 and one October contest. (Hidalgo went 2-for-4 with a pair of singles in that final game -- a stat line that is typically worth 0.1 WAR.)
If we dock Hidalgo his Oct. 1 WAR and cap his September number at 3.1, it's still topped by only one player: Bonds, in his last month in Pittsburgh, September/October 1992. In 136 plate appearances, he hit .392/.537/.833 with 11 home runs, 27 RBIs, 30 runs and nine stolen bases while playing left field, worth 3.4 WAR.
Like with Hidalgo, three of those games came in October. And in them, Bonds hit a pair of home runs and OPS'd 1.200 in 10 plate appearances. That sort of performance usually translates to 0.2 to 0.3 WAR. For the sake of argument, let's take the lower end of that, give Bonds 3.2 WAR for September 1992 and crown him monthly WAR king in the past 50 years, topping Ohtani's total by nearly half a win. At least offensively.
In case you forgot, we still haven't factored in one vital point. Shohei Ohtani pitched last month, too.
THOUGH OHTANI'S FIVE starts in June 2023 were more above average than amazing -- his OPS against of .670 is the same as the woebegone Kansas City Royals' offense this season -- they still bought him 0.6 WAR, bringing his monthly total to 3.4.
For context: That monthly value is within two decimal points of the entire season's production of Corbin Carroll, a Rookie of the Year front-runner and MVP candidate, and former MVP Mookie Betts; one-tenth shy of Luis Robert and Kevin Gausman, both named 2023 All-Stars; and 0.1 ahead of Freddie Freeman, another former MVP.
Yes, by WAR alone, Ohtani has everyone of the last half-century beat. While it's true that prime Bonds' rate stats were better in a number of months -- April 2004 is a particular favorite, with an inconceivable .472/.696/1.132 slash line over 92 plate appearances, including 10 home runs and a 39-to-6 walk-to-strikeout ratio -- Ohtani's volume gives him the edge. Ohtani had 34 more plate appearances, 39 more total bases and, most importantly, 30â…“ more innings pitched. In the six different months in which Bonds' OPS outdid Ohtani's, he had between 92 and 117 plate appearances ... and didn't throw a single pitch.
And that's the rub, right? Greenberg in September 1940 was magical. His bat, however, wasn't so much better than Ohtani's to make up for not pitching. Joe DiMaggio, in July 1937, was unstoppable. He hit .430/.504/.984 with 15 home runs, 42 RBIs, a record 119 total bases and 2.76 Win Probability Added, another metric that attempts to account for every event on field and how it helps or hurts a player's team. (Ohtani's WPA, for reference, was 2.61 in June.) But because of the hitter-happy environment in 1937, DiMaggio's sOPS+ is still lower than Ohtani's ... and he didn't pitch.
The only analog, then, is precisely who you think it is. Babe Ruth never did what Ohtani is doing: start a full slate of games while posting the best offensive numbers in the game. His July 1920 might well be the best offensive month in history. Over 34 games -- the New York Yankees played five doubleheaders -- Ruth hit .440/.614/.970 in 148 plate appearances with 13 home runs, 33 RBIs and a 337 sOPS+. While it was a monstrous performance, his 1.41 WPA does slightly temper the enthusiasm -- and he didn't throw a single pitch this month. The pre-Yankees version of Ruth did hit and pitch simultaneously -- and there are two months within a one-year span worth adjudicating.
In August 1918, at the tail end of the dead-ball era, Ruth hit cleanup for the Boston Red Sox and slashed .282/.423/.359 without a home run and with an sOPS+ of 146. He also started eight games, completed seven of them and posted a 1.73 ERA over 73 innings pitched. Batters hit .189/.252/.250 against him. But again: The leaguewide ERA that season was 2.77, so as impressive as Ruth's endurance and effectiveness were, his 46% better than league average ERA plus his very good but not great offensive numbers don't compare to Ohtani's 29% better than league average ERA in June and his thunderous bat.
Which leaves us with the final candidate to stop Ohtani: Babe Ruth in June 1919, six months before he headed to the Yankees for $100,000. Baseball as we now know it started to take shape in 1919, and June was Ruth's final hurrah as a two-way player. In 26 games, Ruth slashed .385/.500/.667 with four home runs, 16 RBIs, 52 total bases and a 248 sOPS+. Over five starts, he threw 43 innings and posted a 2.51 ERA, albeit with 19 walks and just eight strikeouts.
Here is the tale of the tape:
That last number might be the most important. Even though Ruth's ERA is three-quarters of a run better than Ohtani's, hitters actually produced at an above-average rate against him that month. Eras can skew numbers, make them seem better or worse than they actually are, but the side-by-side statistics here are rather definitive: Ohtani in June 2023 was a significantly better hitter than June 1919 Ruth by rate and volume. While Ruth might have a pitching advantage because of the innings, the chasm on the mound is negligible. Ruth had a fantastic month, but it probably wasn't as good as his own July 1920, and his July 1920 already fell short of Ohtani's June 2023.
Ruth was peerless, a true spectacle, seemingly inimitable. Then, a century later, Ohtani came along. And let's be abundantly clear about something: Babe Ruth never did anything like what Ohtani is doing now.
So it's settled. In June, Shohei Ohtani concocted one of the greatest monthlong offensive showings in baseball history. Not the best, certainly among the top 25, probably in the top 20. Combine it with his pitching, though, and on the cusp of free agency, against the greatest array of talent ever assembled in the game, with the world watching, he had the greatest month of baseball anyone has ever seen.