Even in an age in which we're developing shinier new metrics, NFL pass-rushers are judged by one number before all others: their sack total. And for the second straight year we're using a statistical model to predict that number for the league's best defenders based on past performance attributes and their 2022 playing situation.
We're using the same model as last year (with some light tweaks) that includes some of the following inputs:
Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons
Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN's Mike Clay
Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
How often a player's defensive coordinator/head coach has blitzed in the past
How often opposing quarterbacks on each player's 2022 schedule get sacked
A player's team's win total, which matters because a winning team forces opponents to take greater risks and pass more
How often a player rushes from edge (as opposed to the interior)
Defensive linemen and linebackers who rushed at least 25% of the time last season and are projected to play at least 250 snaps this season by Clay were included, and rookies were excluded.
A year later, the No. 1 spot is occupied by a familiar face, who led the league in sacks, though admittedly with far more than the model predicted. I was pleased with the model's performance in Year 1. For the top 50 players listed in last year's story, the model recorded a mean absolute error of 3.8 sacks without a bias in either direction (meaning it was not globally over or underestimating).
At the time, I noted 39 non-rookies with a sack total betting line at DraftKings, and the model recorded a slightly lower mean absolute error on those players than the lines did, meaning the model's predictions were closer to the players' actual sack totals than the betting lines were, at least on average among those 39 instances.
There are less clear-cut calls below the No. 1 spot. Who will break out, who is headed toward a decline and what do we make of players in new destinations? Let's break it all down below, with the full top 50 included below too:
1. T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
Sacks in 2021: 22.5
Projected sacks in 2022: 12.8
Watt's incredible 2021 campaign saw him tie Michael Strahan's single-season sack record. And despite the math we're doing, the simplest reason -- his superb production in recent seasons -- is the most important in forecasting a strong 2022.
To put Watt's effectiveness in more context, not only did he record 6.5 more sacks than Myles Garrett, the No. 2 player on this list, but he did so on more than 100 fewer pass rushes.
But his sack total isn't the only reason he's at the top of this list. Watt backs up his sack success with effectiveness in pass rush win rate, as he led the league in 2020 and was fifth among edge rushers last season.
And as if Watt needed any help, he's facing a slate of quarterbacks who collectively had one of the highest average sacked rates last season, including Joe Burrow, Zach Wilson, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield -- four of the five quarterbacks sacked at the highest rate in 2021.
2. Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
Sacks in 2021: 16.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 12.1
Though second to Watt, the model's opinion of Garrett is strong. Garrett had 28 sacks over the past two seasons and an oddly identical 26.5% pass rush win rate in both years.
His advantage over Watt? His teammates. Cleveland's win total currently sits at 9.5, while Pittsburgh's is 7.5, per Caesars Sportsbook. That gives him an edge: teams that are winning force their opponent to pass more often and in desperation more often, increasing defenders' sack opportunities.
It's not enough to bring Garrett onto Watt's level in our projections, but it does bring him within one projected sack of his AFC North rival.
3. Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
Sacks in 2021: 15.5
Projected sacks in 2022: 10.7
Bosa's 15.5 sacks last season were particularly impressive because he was double-teamed on 26% of his pass rushes when he lined up on the edge, the second-highest rate in the league. That double-team rate isn't in the model; I'd like to include it one day, but I'd also need to figure out how to forecast double-team rate because, after all, Bosa might just get the same attention again in 2022.
Like Watt and Garrett, Bosa boasts a track record of sack and pass rush win rate success. His injury-wrecked 2020 campaign, however, is a slight knock in comparison. While Bosa might have put up big numbers had he been healthy that season, we don't know that for sure. We do with the other two.
4. Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals
Sacks in 2021: 14.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 10.7
What a meteoric rise. A year ago I wrote up the model's take on Hendrickson, and it was somewhat hedging its bet with the 18th-highest forecast. Hendrickson had been extremely productive in fewer snaps than most pass-rushers but had only broken out in 2020, his final season in New Orleans.
Fourteen regular-season sacks later, the model has totally bought in on Hendrickson. Not only did he maintain his sack production in his first season in Cincinnati, but his pass rush win rate flourished, as his 23% PRWR at edge ranked ninth. That, along with his sacks and relatively strong expectations for the Bengals in 2022, gave the model full confidence that Hendrickson's sack numbers are here to stay.
5. Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys
Sacks in 2021: 13.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 10.0
Parsons is trickier to predict due to his one-year career and his unique role as an off-ball linebacker who moonlights as one of the best edge rushers in the league (or maybe it's the other way around). The big question here is: how often will he rush the passer? The model predicts a slight uptick from pass rushes on 33% of defensive snaps last season. But whether he becomes a full-time pass-rusher or mostly plays linebacker will fundamentally affect his forecast.
Parsons mostly has some outstanding numbers on which to rely, with 13 sacks on just 278 pass rushes a year ago, along with the league's best PRWR among all players. That produces a very strong projection, even with only one season of production.
6. Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams
Sacks in 2021: 12.5
Projected sacks in 2022: 9.8
It speaks to the unbelievable ability of Donald that he projects this highly given the factors working against him. Most notably, he almost always lines up at defensive tackle and you'll notice that the next-highest-ranked DT on this list is Chris Jones at No. 23 with a projected 6.8 sacks. Jones is an excellent player! In addition, Donald is 31 and the only player in his 30s to crack to the top 20 (though Za'Darius Smith and Leonard Floyd are just a couple of weeks away from their shared 30th birthday).
Donald's pass rush win rate is consistently among the highest in the league -- it was second-highest in 2021 despite rushing so frequently from inside -- and blows away every other defensive tackle. In fact, in five seasons of PRWR Donald's worst season at defensive tackle is better than any other player's best season.
7. Haason Reddick, Philadelphia Eagles
Sacks in 2021: 11.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 9.1
The model might be higher on Reddick than any other player relative to public perception. In this case, it's the perception that has the catching up to do.
Reddick has only played two seasons as a mostly full-time pass-rusher, and in both those seasons he put up double-digit sacks and cracked the top 10 in pass rush win rate. And he did it for two different teams!
8. Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers
Sacks in 2021: 9.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 8.9
Burns has yet to cross the double-digit sack threshold, but the underlying signs are there for a high-end pass-rusher. He's consistent, with nine sacks in each of the past two seasons and 7.5 in his 2019 rookie campaign. His win rates are strong -- fourth at edge in 2020 before a light step back to 13th last season. And he's still young at 24 years old.
Another factor working in his favor is that his defensive coordinator, Phil Snow, blitzes at a high rate -- 32% of the time last season, above the league average of 26%.
9. Joey Bosa, Los Angeles Chargers
Sacks in 2021: 10.5
Projected sacks in 2022: 8.2
The elder Bosa hasn't reached his brother's sack ceiling but has scored a higher win rate -- including in 2020, when he ranked fifth among edge rushers.
There's one key factor that isn't accounted for in the model that is relevant here: change in quality of pass-rushing teammates. Having other effective pass-rushers raises a player's sack expectation, and the Chargers' addition of Khalil Mack ought to do that for Bosa. Considering that, I think this forecast for Bosa might even be a shade light.
10. Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sacks in 2021: 10.0
Projected sacks in 2022: 8.2
Barrett is a good pass-rusher but his forecast benefits from his circumstances. The Bucs have the highest projected win total (11.5) among teams of players in the top 10. More wins leads to more opponent passing and more situations where the defense knows the offense is going to throw.
In addition, Barrett plays for blitz-happy coach Todd Bowles, who led the league in blitz rate last season at 38% -- well above the 26% league average.
Three more notable projections
20. Chase Young, Washington Commanders
Sacks in 2021: 1.5
Projected sacks in 2022: 7.2
The model is buying a bounce-back from Young after a disappointing 2021, when he had 1.5 sacks in nine games. Though Young's sack production wasn't there, his 19% pass rush win rate at edge was solid and would have ranked 16th had he qualified.
More important: the model isn't forgetting about Young's rookie season, when he had 7.5 sacks and had the seventh-best PRWR at edge. Washington also blitzes at a high 33% rate under defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio.
35. Von Miller, Buffalo Bills
Sacks in 2021: 9.5
Projected sacks in 2022: 6.1
The model is missing a critical piece of information when evaluating Miller, and it's his 2021 postseason performance.
When I built this model a year ago I (foolishly!) set it up to consider regular season only. That's mostly fine, but in the case of Miller -- who recorded the highest pass rush win rate postseason in the history of the metric of 41.5% last January and February -- it legitimately shifts our understanding of his ability last season and should affect our forecast for him for 2022. I'd take the over on this number for Miller.
41. Chandler Jones, Las Vegas Raiders
Sacks in 2021: 10.5
Projected sacks in 2022: 5.8
Out of all the pass-rushers in the NFL, Jones has the largest differential between his total sack betting line (11 at Caesars Sportsbook) and my projection for him. There are plenty of reasons why the model fades Jones, though:
He's 32.
He recorded just one sack in five games two seasons ago.
He recorded a below average pass rush win rate at edge last season.
None of the five quarterbacks with the highest sacked rates last season are on the Raiders' schedule.
The model isn't even aware that five of his 10.5 sacks last season came in Week 1, which doesn't seem great, either.