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ESPN Staff Writer- Former NFL safety Matt Bowen is a veteran of four teams over seven seasons, and now provides analysis for ESPN Insider.
Most of the time, data on NFL football players back up our prior conceptions of their games. But every so often, the numbers have a contrarian take, and that's one way we can pick out players who might be overrated or underrated.
So who do the numbers like more -- or less -- than consensus thought as we head into the 2021 season? And do those numbers pass the eye test and what shows up on the game film? Football analysis requires a mix of crunching the numbers and pouring over the tape, so we did both here. Analytics writer Seth Walder identified 10 players whom advanced statistics -- various metrics, including those from NFL Next Gen Stats -- suggest might be overrated or underrated, and then we called on NFL analyst Matt Bowen to see if the tape backs it all up. Do the data and film align, or are there some discrepancies?
To close, we then flipped the script: Bowen picked out two additional players who he loves on tape, and Walder broke their games down with the numbers.
Let's get started with six players who shine in the analytics world and perhaps deserve more recognition as impact players, including a QB who outplays his reputation, a running back who could break out in 2021 and some linemen whose blocking prowess has flown beneath the radar.
UNDERRATED PLAYERS
Darious Williams, CB, Los Angeles Rams
Walder on what the numbers say: Last season, the five best outside corners in completion percentage over expectation allowed (per NFL Next Gen Stats) were Xavier Rhodes, Jalen Ramsey, Williams, Jaire Alexander and Xavien Howard. Those are some big names alongside Williams, who is entering his fourth season. And Williams' passes faced were the deepest of the group on average, so the leverage on his pass defense was even higher. He also ranked in the top three in expected points added allowed and was targeted at a slightly below-average rate.
On the other hand, Williams did play opposite Ramsey and had Aaron Donald rushing the passer in front of him. So I'm wondering: Was his success a product of quarterbacks making throws they wouldn't otherwise?
Bowen on what the tape shows: Seth, we could actually make the case that playing opposite of Ramsey, the league's premier cover corner, creates even more pressure for Williams. Why? He's more likely to be targeted, based on offensive route concepts and game plan. And when studying Williams, I see a corner who has the skill set to fit today's NFL coverage schemes as both a man and zone defender, with the transition speed and instincts to create on-the-ball production.
In 2020, Williams posted four interceptions and 11 passes broken up. That speaks to Williams' aggressive play-style and the short-area juice he displays on the tape. If we are looking for "underrated" cover corners, then Williams is near the top of the list.
Kelvin Beachum, OT, Arizona Cardinals
Walder on what the numbers say: Beachum has finished in the top 16 in pass block win rate in each of the past three seasons -- and across two teams (Jets and Cardinals). His run blocking was below average in 2018 and 2019, but he flew all the way up to No. 2 in run block win rate last season. Even if the run blocking last year were a fluke, a reliable pass-blocking tackle is awfully valuable. And yet, Beachum received just a two-year, $4 million contract from the Cardinals.
Bowen on what the tape shows: Beachum is a mid-tier starter at the offensive tackle position, who, as you noted here, does give you a boost in pass protection. While he can be a "waist bender," Beachum displays the athletic traits to mirror and redirect in space, which are necessary tools when facing today's NFL edge rushers.
But in terms of the run blocking, I have to question that a little bit. You say the metrics view Beachum as a plus run-blocker, but that doesn't mesh consistently with the tape.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Walder on what the numbers say: Two similar advanced running back metrics came to the same conclusion about Dobbins last year: He's generating extra yards at a very high level. NFL Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expectation per carry ranked Dobbins second, behind Cleveland's Nick Chubb, among all rushers with at least 85 carries in 2020. And my own block-adjusted rushing metric -- which controls factors such as run block win rate, defenders in the box and down and distance -- also ranked Dobbins second, again behind Chubb, on a per-carry basis.
My only concern is the fact that Baltimore teammate and backfield mate Gus Edwards also ranked in the top five in both metrics. Is there something about the Baltimore running game (maybe having Lamar Jackson to account for, as well) that boosts these two rushers in ways the models are blind to, or do the Ravens just have two particularly strong running backs?
Bowen on what the tape shows: Sure, the Ravens run game -- which I call multidimensional -- does create numbers to the play side and blocking angles. And there is no question on Jackson's impact as a runner, which consistently influences opposing defenders. But we also have to really focus on Dobbins' traits as a ball carrier.
I look at the short-area burst here, plus the field vision, contact balance and ability to stack moves together. He's a dynamic runner with a physical element to his game, who can also create explosive plays on the ground. Last season, Dobbins registered 12 explosive play rushes (rushes of 15 yards or more), in addition to the 6.1 yards per carry he put on the books. Given the traits we just talked about, plus the scheme in Baltimore, Dobbins has breakout potential in 2021 as a volume runner.
Update: Dobbins suffered a left knee injury on Saturday night.
Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
Walder on what the numbers say: There has been a strange inverse relationship between Carr's reputation and his QBR rank. Back in 2016, Carr actually received MVP votes as he led the Raiders to the playoffs, but traditional stats overvalued his contribution thanks to a low depth of target. That season he ranked 16th in QBR.
In the time since, the consensus view on Carr has dropped significantly, and I'd argue too far. He has ranked in the top 11 in QBR each of the past years -- better than the season he got MVP votes -- and had a plus-3 completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He started throwing downfield more often and with success, too. He ranked second behind only Aaron Rodgers in expected points added on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield last season.
Bowen on what the tape shows: I'm with you on Carr, Seth. Yes, he is a scheme-dependent quarterback in Jon Gruden's heavily defined passing offense. However, as you said, he was much more willing to cut it loose this past season as a thrower. Whether we are looking at the scripted verticals, or his ability to identify and take the one-on-ones, Carr was much more aggressive, which is reflected by his 99.6 QBR on throws of 20 or more air yards.
And he has meshed those downfield shot plays with Gruden's short-to-intermediate route tree, where Carr can use his quick release to throw with velocity or pace, while delivering the ball with pretty consistent location.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
Walder on what the numbers say: Meyers isn't a major success story just yet, but there were some strong underlying signs from him last year.
He was targeted on 27% of his routes run, the 10th highest rate in the league among wide receivers with at least 300 routes, while simultaneously achieving the fourth-most separation over expectation among wide receivers with at least 70 targets past the line of scrimmage. Separation over expectation controls for variables like depth of target, air yards to sticks, distance from sideline, air time and route, using NFL Next Gen Stats data. But crucially, it is only calculated on targets, which means that a receiver often targeted by a quarterback might look worse in the metric, making the combination of a high target rate and high separation numbers particularly impressive.
Meyers' plus-3 completion percentage over expectation wasn't exceptional in a vacuum, but it did lead New England wide receivers last season.
Bowen on what the tape shows: Is Meyers truly underrated? I see Meyers as a complimentary piece in the New England pass game. He is better suited in the slot, where he can get free access off the ball. Meyers isn't an initial separator, nor does he display high-end traits as a route runner.
However, there is nuance to his game, which points to his awareness in identifying coverages and finding holes in zone schemes. While Meyers lacks dynamic ability after the reception, he catches the ball inside his frame and is a very competitive receiver who displays his toughness on middle-of-the-field throws. In 2020, Meyers caught 39 of his 59 total receptions inside of the numbers. And at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, he's much bigger than people think.
Brandon Linder, C, Jacksonville Jaguars
Walder on what the numbers say: I am desperate to know what we're missing on Linder, a long-time crush of the win rates. His pass block win rate ranks, among centers, over the past three years are as follows:
2018: No. 2
2019: No. 4
2020: No. 1
And his run block win rates, while not on the same level, have been above average all three of those years. Is he really an undiscussed star hiding in plain sight, as the numbers suggest?
Bowen on what the tape shows: I think you hit it on Linder ... when focusing on his ability in pass protection. With the initial quickness to mirror and slide and the lower-body power to drop anchor, Linder is one of, if not the best, pass-blocking centers in the league. I'll give you that.
And while Linder isn't an upper-tier run-game blocker, he has the movement traits to reach, combo and climb in Jacksonville's zone-based scheme.
OVERRATED PLAYERS
Frank Clark, DE, Kansas City Chiefs
Walder on what the numbers say: Though Clark is coming off a widely-recognized down year in 2021 with just six sacks, pass rush win rate has long been skeptical of him. Among edge rushers, his win rate ranks have fell between 27th and 40th in the NFL since 2017. He has also finished in the bottom 10 in run stop win rate as an edge defender in three of those four seasons.
Sacks, of course, are still important, and Clark had 14 of them in 2018 with the Seahawks. But the win rates suggest that on a play-to-play level, Clark hasn't had the impact his sack totals have suggested.
Bowen on what the tape shows: We see it the same way with Clark. He's a boom-or-bust edge rusher. Similar to a Jadeveon Clowney, Clark possess high-level traits, but the skill set doesn't always meet the production. In Clark's six pro seasons, he has posted 10 or more sacks only twice, and his pressure rate this past season registered at just 6.7%. With his ability to bend off the edge and the short-area speed to close on the quarterback, you'd expect Clark to create more consistent disruption in passing situations.
Ryan Ramczyk, OT, New Orleans Saints
Walder on what the numbers say: Ramczyk is the highest-paid right tackle in the league but has never finished in the top 20 in pass block win rate among tackles (both left and right). It's not that win rates despise him; he just doesn't look as elite in the stat as you'd expect.
There's a couple of possibilities here. Is the fact that Ramczyk played in front of QB Drew Brees, who got rid of the ball so quickly, causing people to overrate him because Brees' pressure and sack numbers were always so low? Or, by throwing out plays where the ball is thrown in under 2.5 seconds and no pass block loss occurred, is the metric biasing against Saints' offensive linemen who had an inordinate number of such plays?
Bowen on what the tape shows: The Saints' starting right tackle can play in space, due to his ability to stay balanced, redirect and take the proper angles. And I like the hand placement/usage on his tape. The footwork is pretty solid in the run game, too, and he can match up against power rushers.
It remains to be seen on how much impact Brees had on Ramczyk -- and the entire Saints offensive line -- due to the retired QB's ability to read it out and deliver the ball with speed. However, with Jameis Winston starting the season as the Saints' No.1 quarterback, I would expect New Orleans to utilize more intermediate-to-vertical throws in the route tree.
Darius Slay, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
Walder on what the numbers say: Slay's first season with the Eagles did not appear to be worth the cost of admission. In 2020, the former All-Pro allowed the third-highest completion percentage over expectation among all outside corners (plus-10%), only beating out Seattle's Tre Flowers and Cincinnati's LeShaun Sims. While those numbers are on targets only, Slay did not appear to deter throws in his direction, either. His 18% target rate was in the middle of the pack, and his yards allowed per coverage snap were below average. He also recorded just one pick.
Over the three past seasons, Slay's completion percentage allowed over expectation and yards allowed per coverage snap were much better. His target rate was slightly higher, but so was his interception count. But now at 30 years old, Slay's performance in his first year in Philadelphia appears worrying, at least by the numbers.
Bowen on what the tape shows: I'm still betting on the traits with Slay, who will line up in a much more technically sound defensive scheme this year under new coaching in Philadelphia. We know Slay has the ball skills, but even at age 30, I still see a cornerback with detailed footwork, loose hips and recovery speed against vertical routes.
And with little to no wasted movement on transitions, along with the veteran awareness to identify route concepts, Slay can put himself in a position to finish plays.
Rodger Saffold III, G, Tennessee Titans
Walder on what the numbers say: The win rates actually did love Saffold at one point. Three years ago, the then-Rams offensive lineman ranked in the top 10 in both run block win rate and pass block win rate among guards. But he has fallen off hard.
Saffold was the fifth-worst guard in pass block win rate last season, and he was below average in run block win rate, as well. In this case, there's no debate about the kind of player Saffold was in his prime. The question on him, instead, is whether his decline has been as steep on tape as the numbers suggest.
Bowen on what the tape shows: Back in 2018, Saffold was a prime fit for the zone-run game, with the initial quickness to get under defensive lineman. He could drop his hips while moving laterally without losing ground to establish and keep positioning at the point of attack.
While he is still a viable run blocker in the Titans' zone-heavy scheme with running back Derrick Henry, there are some concerns here in pass pro in true dropback situations. But given the play-action-based route tree in Tennessee, Saffold is aided by the Titans' ability to create pass-blocking angles off the run-action.
PLAYERS THE TAPE LOVES
Tim Settle, DT, Washington Football Team
Bowen on what the tape shows: The tape tells us that Settle has disruptive ability as an interior pass-rusher. That's the heavy hands, play strength and quicks off the ball. Part of the defensive line rotation in Washington, Settle posted five sacks last season and has the versatility to play in today's multiple defensive fronts. Only 24 years old and entering the final year of his rookie contract, I see Settle as an ascending talent.
Walder on what the numbers say: Numbers-wise, there might be something here with pass rushing. Settle's pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle was 13.2% last season. In a part-time role, he didn't qualify for our leaderboard, but had he checked in at that number, he would have slotted right between Jonathan Allen and Stephon Tuitt. That's pretty darn good. And it's not a product of third downs, when win rates are higher, either; Settle's win rate was actually higher in both absolute and relative terms on first and second down.
But before we get too excited, he's far from the only part-timer to put up numbers like that in limited time, and his run stop win rate was below average last season. Still, he looks like a valuable rotational player who could be worth a look for increased playing time.
C.J. Gardner-Johnson, DB, New Orleans Saints
Bowen on what the tape shows: With an urgent and ultra-competitive play style, Gardner-Johnson has the versatile traits needed in today's NFL secondaries. In his first two pro seasons, Gardner-Johnson registered two interceptions and 17 passes broken up. He's around the ball for a reason. And in Dennis Allen's defense, Gardner-Johnson can match to the slot, play in space or be utilized on pressure schemes to heat up the pocket. These are the guys you want to coach.
Walder on what the numbers say: Oh, wow. Gardner-Johnson posted some elite slot corner numbers last season. Among defensive backs who had at least 300 coverage snaps and played in the slot at least 40% of the time, Gardner-Johnson ranked first in completion percentage allowed over expectation (minus-8%), first in coverage success rate (60%) and fourth in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.0), per NFL Next Gen Stats. If I'd realized the extent to his production, he would have made the underrated list above! Good find, Matt.