The possibility of Alex DeBrincat being traded this summer had been a topic of discussion for weeks.
On Sunday night, the Detroit Red Wings were the team to offer the right package in return for the talented winger, sending forward Dominik Kubalik, defenseman Donovan Sebrango, a conditional first-round pick in the 2024 draft and a fourth-round pick in the 2024 draft to the Ottawa Senators. Following the trade, the Wings signed DeBrincat to a four-year, $31.5 million contract.
How did both GMs do in this swap? Here are our grades for each side:
Detroit Red Wings: A
Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman laid out his "Yzerplan" when he took over the team in 2019. They would amass picks and build through the draft. While they haven't had any lottery luck, Detroit has built a solid base of prospects: defenseman Moritz Seider, forward Lucas Raymond, center Marco Kasper, defenseman Simon Edvinsson and others.
Again, there isn't a Connor Bedard at the center of this galaxy, but there might be some shining stars down the line.
Another part of the "Yzerplan": branching out into unrestricted free agency to build a supporting cast for these young players. Last offseason, it was Andrew Copp, David Perron and Dominik Kubalik. This offseason, it's J.T. Compher, Daniel Sprong and Christian Fischer.
But there has been one weakness in the plan: finding ways to increase the NHL-proven high-end offensive talent on the roster.
Since 2015-16 -- the last time the Red Wings made the playoffs or finished with a points percentage over .500 -- they've had only one player score over 70 points or score more than 30 goals. His name is Dylan Larkin, and he has been lonely.
So with that preamble out of the way: The Alex DeBrincat trade is a huge win for Detroit and an indication that the Yzerplan might lead the Red Wings back to prominence.
DeBrincat, who turns 26 in December, has two 41-goal seasons to his credit. He had 27 goals for Ottawa in a down year -- his shooting percentage dropped from 15.2% to 10.3%. He's a fast skater, a terrific generator of high-danger chances and a solid playmaker. He's what this lineup lacked in a significant way. And now it has it.
He's a clear upgrade over Kubalik, although not nearly the cap bargain for the output. Sebrango was expendable for the Red Wings given their depth on defense in their prospect pool. And obviously the Red Wings are fine giving up the first -- it's not like they're ever winning the lottery anyway.
What really makes the grade is the contract. The $7.875 million AAV is equal to what Kevin Fiala got from the Los Angeles Kings on a seven-year term last summer. The cap was flat then. It's flat now. It could be up to around $93 million by the summer of 2025, at which point this could end up looking like an incredible contract for the Red Wings.
Apparently, getting four years in his home state was enough for DeBrincat to forego hitting a torrid free agent market during his peak production seasons.
Maybe the Red Wings finally level up to playoff contender next season. Maybe it's the season after that. The bottom line is they have DeBrincat as part of that plan for the next four seasons, rather than having him walk around the arena with a temporary visitor's pass. You know, like he did last season in Ottawa.
Ottawa Senators: C
GM Pierre Dorion will likely be praised for doing "the best he could do under the circumstances," because those circumstances included a player that wanted out, coming off a down offensive season, who controlled his path because whatever team traded for him needed to sign him to an extension.
And all of this was happening under a flat salary cap that has handcuffed the league this summer.
But can you really praise someone making the best of a bad situation that he created?
DeBrincat was acquired to help return the Senators to the playoffs. Instead, he scored 14 fewer goals and the Senators finished sixth in the Atlantic Division. Many, many people expected that DeBrincat would not remain with the Senators when he had a chance to leave as an unrestricted free agent in 2024. After he made that clear to the team a year early -- thanks for the inspiration, Matthew Tkachuk! -- Dorion had no choice but to move him to a team of his approval.
So what does the return look like "under the circumstances"? Kubalik had 20 goals and 25 assists in 81 games for the Red Wings last season. He's a pure goal scorer with below-average defense who can leave after next season as an unrestricted free agent. Sebrango projects to be an NHL defenseman and has some upside, especially with his play in his own end. Plus he's from Ottawa.
As far as the pick, the conditions are as follows:
The Red Wings will have the option of sending their own 2024 first-round pick or Boston's 2024 first-round pick (previously acquired March 2 in the Tyler Bertuzzi trade) to Ottawa. However, if the Bruins' 2024 first-round selection is an eventual top-10 pick (following the draft lottery), Boston will have the option of retaining the pick and transferring its 2025 unprotected first-round selection to Detroit. The Red Wings will then have the option of sending that draft pick or their own first-round pick in 2024 to the Senators to complete this trade.
Everybody got that?
Ultimately, the DeBrincat era in Ottawa might be less remembered for what they got from Detroit than what they gave up to Chicago: The seventh overall pick in the 2022 NHL draft, which manifested as defenseman Kevin Korchinski for the Blackhawks. He had 73 points in 54 games last season for Seattle in the Western Hockey League, and projects to be a top four defenseman in the NHL. The Blackhawks also drafted forward Paul Ludwinski and hold Ottawa's fourth-rounder in 2024 as well.
Dorion was praised for the aggressive move for DeBrincat last summer -- at best, the winger would fall in love with Ottawa and seek an extension; at worst, the Senators would sell high on him after being a serious playoff contender in an "all-in" end to their rebuild.
The Senators' one-and-done relationship with DeBrincat will be remembered as a bold attempt by Dorion to get his team back to the playoffs, a gamble that produced only one season in Ottawa for a star player before he wanted nothing more to do with franchise.