An offensive line can make or break a season. So how does every team's unit look heading into the 2022 season?
We ranked all 32 teams' lines by combining our predicted pass block win rates (PBWR) and run block win rates (RBWR) for this season, which are based on the past performance of each projected starter -- according to Mike Clay -- over the past two seasons. Rookie starters are assumed to be below average because that is historically what they usually are, even the first-rounders. Players who have played but only in small amounts have their previous win rates regressed toward a below-average level.
Then we averaged those pass and run block ranks with a 60/40 split favoring the passing game, based approximately on how much PBWR and RBWR correlate with a team's expected points added per play. RBWR has a higher impact on running EPA per play than PBWR does on passing EPA per play, but the passing game is more important overall. That weighted average produces our overall offensive line rankings. Let's jump in, starting with two teams with Super Bowl aspirations.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Projected starters: Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Andrew Wylie
Predicted pass block rank: No. 1
Predicted run block rank: No. 5
It's hard to imagine an investment in the offensive line going much better than what the Chiefs did a year ago. That's most notable on the interior, where they drafted or signed the No. 1 center in pass block win rate in Humphrey and Nos. 1 and 2 guards in Thuney and Smith. They were home run moves and particularly remarkable considering Smith was a sixth-round pick.
2. Green Bay Packers*
Projected starters: David Bakhtiari, Jon Runyan, Josh Myers, Royce Newman, Elgton Jenkins
Predicted pass block rank: No. 4
Predicted run block rank: No. 2
Note the asterisk above, because this ranking is working under an extremely precarious assumption of health from both Bakhtiari and Jenkins.
Bakhtiari is particularly concerning, given that he missed almost the entirety of 2021 and then underwent another procedure on his left knee this offseason to address lingering concerns. But he is an elite player when on the field.
Jenkins, who is recovering from a torn ACL last season, is also a high-end and versatile offensive lineman. Green Bay's line is in good shape if they're both on the field -- but that's a huge if.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected starters: Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce, Isaac Seumalo, Lane Johnson
Predicted pass block rank: No. 7
Predicted run block rank: No. 3
In pass protection, veteran right tackle Johnson anchors the unit, with a 95% PBWR last season that ranked second among tackles. But in run blocking, this team has a slew of elite players. Mailata, Dickerson and Kelce all ranked in the top five for their positions in RBWR in 2021.
4. Denver Broncos
Projected starters: Garett Bolles, Dalton Risner, Lloyd Cushenberry III, Graham Glasgow, Billy Turner
Predicted pass block rank: No. 5
Predicted run block rank: No. 6
Turner signed only a one-year, $2.5 million deal this offseason despite PBWRs of 92% (11th overall at tackle) in 2021 and 94% (third) in 2020. Bolles was better in pass protection two years ago, so the model's best guess is a bit of an improvement off his 89% PBWR last season that ranked just 31st.
5. Baltimore Ravens
Projected starters: Ronnie Stanley, Ben Powers, Tyler Linderbaum, Kevin Zeitler, Morgan Moses
Predicted pass block rank: No. 6
Predicted run block rank: No. 8
Stanley was once a top-seven tackle in both run blocking and pass blocking, but with only seven games played over the past two seasons, the model is no longer banking on him as elite. Free agent signing Moses upgrades the right tackle position in terms of pass protection (91% PBWR last season, 16th best among tackles) but is a downgrade from Alejandro Villanueva in the run game. Powers was exceptional in run blocking last season, as was Zeitler in pass protection.
6. Arizona Cardinals
Projected starters: D.J. Humphries, Justin Pugh, Rodney Hudson, Will Hernandez, Kelvin Beachum
Predicted pass block rank: No. 3
Predicted run block rank: No. 13
Pugh was quietly a top-five pass-protecting guard last season, a boost to this line's forecast. Beachum, on the other hand, took a pretty big step back with an 88% PBWR that was 35th among tackles after a long history of performing quite well in the metric. Because Beachum was better (92%) two years ago, the model is guessing there will be some improvement from him at right tackle.
7. Washington Commanders
Projected starters: Charles Leno Jr., Andrew Norwell, Chase Roullier, Trai Turner, Cornelius Lucas
Predicted pass block rank: No. 14
Predicted run block rank: No. 1
Find someone who loves you as much as run block win rate loves Washington's offensive line. That remains true even after the loss of No. 1 run-blocking guard Brandon Scherff to Jacksonville in free agency. Norwell, who came from Jacksonville, ranked seventh in the same category. Roullier didn't qualify last season but would have been the top-ranked run-blocking center if he had -- and he ranked second in 2020.
8. Cleveland Browns
Projected starters: Jedrick Wills Jr., Joel Bitonio, Nick Harris, Wyatt Teller, Jack Conklin
Predicted pass block rank: No. 2
Predicted run block rank: No. 21
Wills Jr. is indicative of the Browns' substantial split between the run and pass game. He ranked 14th in pass block win rate last season among tackles but 64th (out of 70) in the run game.
The guards are a strength of this line. Both Bitonio and Teller were top-10 in pass protection and above average in run blocking last season.
9. Indianapolis Colts
Projected starters: Matt Pryor, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Danny Pinter, Braden Smith
Predicted pass block rank: No. 8
Predicted run block rank: No. 12
A banged-up Nelson had a down year for him in 2021, which was still very strong. He was 12th and 13th in PBWR and RBWR, respectively. A healthy Nelson obviously is better than that.
Smith at right tackle turned into a very reliable part of the offensive line last year, too. He improved from 30th in PBWR in 2020 to fourth in 2021. Until he does that for two years in a row, the model won't fully buy in, but it's still an encouraging sign for the Colts' line.
10. New England Patriots
Projected starters: Trent Brown, Cole Strange, David Andrews, Mike Onwenu, Isaiah Wynn
Predicted pass block rank: No. 10
Predicted run block rank: No. 15
The Patriots lost two fairly strong guards this offseason in Shaq Mason and Ted Karras -- they were ninth and 11th in PBWR last season, respectively, with Karras also finishing 14th in RBWR. But the versatile Onwenu is a solid replacement, even though the model will assume Strange is below average -- as it does for all rookies.
11. Chicago Bears
Projected starters: Riley Reiff, Cody Whitehair, Lucas Patrick, Michael Schofield III, Larry Borom
Predicted pass block rank: No. 13
Predicted run block rank: No. 11
This is a pretty stunning rank for the Bears' offensive line, but they have a few things going for them. Reiff and Schofield -- late additions just before training camp -- help bolster the line. Borom, a fifth-round pick a year ago, posted a very solid 90% PBWR last season in 10 games, 21st among tackles. And Patrick should be an asset in the ground game after ranking third in RBWR among centers last season with the Packers.
12. Los Angeles Rams
Projected starters: Joe Noteboom, David Edwards, Brian Allen, Logan Bruss, Rob Havenstein
Predicted pass block rank: No. 9
Predicted run block rank: No. 20
The drop-off from the retired Andrew Whitworth to virtually any replacement was always going to be steep. The veteran tackle recorded a 94% pass block win rate, third best among tackles and best among left tackles, in his final season of play. But Noteboom has potential. He qualified at tackle in 2020 and ranked 17th in PBWR that year. And he had a 96% PBWR against the Bucs in the divisional round of the 2021 playoffs when he filled in for Whitworth.
13. Houston Texans
Projected starters: Laremy Tunsil, Kenyon Green, Justin Britt, A.J. Cann, Tytus Howard
Predicted pass block rank: No. 11
Predicted run block rank: No. 19
Over his career, Howard has recorded an 89% pass block win rate when playing tackle -- an average to slightly above-average number. He and Tunsil can make for a decent tackle pairing.
14. Carolina Panthers
Projected starters: Ikem Ekwonu, Brady Christensen, Bradley Bozeman, Austin Corbett, Taylor Moton
Predicted pass block rank: No. 17
Predicted run block rank: No. 10
The Panthers' offensive line has been a liability in recent seasons, particularly in pass protection. So a middle-of-the-road ranking is solid progress after investment into the position group. Bozeman, a free agent signing this offseason, trailed only Humphrey in PBWR among centers last season.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected starters: Donovan Smith, Luke Goedeke, Robert Hainsey, Shaq Mason, Tristan Wirfs
Predicted pass block rank: No. 19
Predicted run block rank: No. 9
Tom Brady's quick release and sack/pressure avoidance always make his offensive line look good. It's a decent group but not elite because of a pass-protection weakness at left tackle in Smith, whose 81% PBWR ranked 61st out of 68 qualifying tackles last season. He ranked 51st in 2020.
Hainsey stepping in after Ryan Jensen's injury means the model assumes an approximately rookie-level starter at center for the Bucs since Hainsey barely played in 2021.
16. San Francisco 49ers
Projected starters: Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Daniel Brunskill, Mike McGlinchey
Predicted pass block rank: No. 15
Predicted run block rank: No. 16
The Niners are of course anchored by Williams, but losing Laken Tomlinson hurts, and PBWR has seen McGlinchey as below average in each of the past two seasons.
Everyone has a rough time against Aaron Donald, but no one more than Brunskill. He has surrendered a 54% PRWR to Donald over his career, the highest of any player with at least 15 pass-rush plays with a win or loss vs. Donald since 2017.
17. Buffalo Bills
Projected starters: Dion Dawkins, Rodger Saffold, Mitch Morse, Ryan Bates, Spencer Brown
Predicted pass block rank: No. 12
Predicted run block rank: No. 26
There is reason to be skeptical of the Bills' Saffold signing. The 34-year-old guard is a former win rate standout, but his metrics have declined significantly in the past couple of seasons. He ranked 60th and 56th in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively, among guards in 2021.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Projected starters: Jonah Williams, Jackson Carman, Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, La'el Collins
Predicted pass block rank: No. 20
Predicted run block rank: No. 14
The Bengals ranked 30th in pass block win rate in 2021, so even projecting them at 20th best in pass protection is a significant jump. PBWR was a huge fan of Karras at guard last season with the Patriots (11th best), but it remains skeptical of Williams, who has been below average in pass protection the past two seasons.
19. Dallas Cowboys
Projected starters: Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin, Terence Steele
Predicted pass block rank: No. 18
Predicted run block rank: No. 18
It's no surprise given his reputation, but Martin has been a top-10 PBWR and RBWR guard in each of the past two seasons. Young center Biadasz is an asset in the ground game, ranking sixth in RBWR last season, but is roughly average in pass protection.
20. New York Giants
Projected starters: Andrew Thomas, Max Garcia, Jon Feliciano, Mark Glowinski, Evan Neal
Predicted pass block rank: No. 30
Predicted run block rank: No. 4
Thomas embodies the absolutely massive run/pass split here. The former fourth overall pick has ranked in the top 10 in RBWR in each of his first two seasons, while simultaneously finishing below average in pass protection.
Glowinski, a new Giant this year, fits the mold to a lesser degree, too. He was 11th in run blocking and 34th in pass blocking among guards last season.
21. New Orleans Saints
Projected starters: Trevor Penning, Andrus Peat, Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz, Ryan Ramczyk
Predicted pass block rank: No. 16
Predicted run block rank: No. 25
Ramczyk is arguably the best right tackle in the league, and he props up the Saints' ranks in both categories here, particularly pass protection. Both guards -- Peat and Ruiz -- were below average in run block win rate, and Ruiz was near the bottom of all players at the position.
22. Minnesota Vikings
Projected starters: Christian Darrisaw, Ezra Cleveland, Garrett Bradbury, Jesse Davis, Brian O'Neill
Predicted pass block rank: No. 31
Predicted run block rank: No. 7
Cleveland is the wild split player on this line, as he finished fifth best in run block win rate among guards but third worst in pass block win rate. And Darrisaw's career got off to a rocky start, as the rookie posted the second-worst pass block win rate among all tackles in 2021.
23. Los Angeles Chargers
Projected starters: Rashawn Slater, Matt Feiler, Corey Linsley, Zion Johnson, Storm Norton
Predicted pass block rank: No. 23
Predicted run block rank: No. 22
The win rates liked Slater (12th in PBWR and 34th in RBWR, among tackles) but not quite to the level that his second-team All-Pro selection would suggest. Norton and the rookie Johnson at guard drag down the team's rating, with Norton recording just an 83% PBWR last season, 58th out of 68 tackles.
24. New York Jets
Projected starters: Mekhi Becton, Laken Tomlinson, Connor McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker, George Fant
Predicted pass block rank: No. 21
Predicted run block rank: No. 28
Becton is the weak link here in pass protection, at least in the model's opinion. The former first-rounder started his career hot in the metric during his rookie season, but his performance dropped off as the year went on, and then the model dings him for having barely played in 2021.
Tomlinson is a nice addition at left guard who should help in the pass game (14th in PBWR among guards in 2021).
25. Miami Dolphins
Projected starters: Terron Armstead, Liam Eichenberg, Connor Williams, Robert Hunt, Austin Jackson
Predicted pass block rank: No. 25
Predicted run block rank: No. 23
The win rates have never liked Armstead as much as one might think, given his very strong reputation, but he still helps Miami. This line has plenty of problems elsewhere, though. Jackson has been poor in pass protection at both guard and tackle over his two-year career, and Eichenberg was the third-worst tackle in PBWR last season.
26. Detroit Lions
Projected starters: Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Penei Sewell
Predicted pass block rank: No. 26
Predicted run block rank: No. 24
After a rough start to his rookie season, Sewell's numbers improved when he moved over to right tackle. His pass block win rate jumped from 82% to 87%, and his run block win rate ticked up from 71% to 73%. Neither right tackle number is elite -- they're both right around average -- but perhaps it suggests what ought to be a slightly brighter forecast for his 2022 season than his numbers in aggregate might indicate.
27. Tennessee Titans
Projected starters: Taylor Lewan, Aaron Brewer, Ben Jones, Nate Davis, Dillon Radunz
Predicted pass block rank: No. 22
Predicted run block rank: No. 31
All four qualifiers from this line ranked below average in run block win rate last season at their positions. The fifth player, Radunz, had a 54% run block win rate over 118 snaps at tackle and guard, which would have been the worst RBWR at either position had he played enough to qualify. Running back Derrick Henry is not going to have it easy this year.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected starters: Dan Moore Jr., Kevin Dotson, Mason Cole, James Daniels, Chukwuma Okorafor
Predicted pass block rank: No. 32
Predicted run block rank: No. 17
This is a rough tackle duo from a pass protection standpoint. Moore's 76% PBWR ranked last -- 68th out of 68 qualifiers -- at tackle, while Okorafor was a bit better at 84% but still 55th. Quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky and/or Kenny Pickett are going to need to get rid of the ball quickly.
29. Las Vegas Raiders
Projected starters: Kolton Miller, John Simpson, Andre James, Dylan Parham, Alex Leatherwood
Predicted pass block rank: No. 24
Predicted run block rank: No. 32
If Leatherwood had qualified at tackle before he was moved to guard last season, he would have ranked last among all tackles at both pass block win rate and run block win rate. On the other side of the line, Miller has some interesting splits. He ranked sixth among all tackles in PBWR but sixth worst in RBWR.
30. Seattle Seahawks
Projected starters: Charles Cross, Damien Lewis, Austin Blythe, Gabe Jackson, Abraham Lucas
Predicted pass block rank: No. 28
Predicted run block rank: No. 27
The Seahawks' investment this year in the offensive line via the draft -- Cross and Lucas were first- and third-round picks, respectively -- might pay dividends down the road. But odds are that it will make for a rough 2022. Offensive linemen, even early draft picks, are usually below average in their rookie seasons.
31. Atlanta Falcons
Projected starters: Jake Matthews, Jalen Mayfield, Matt Hennessy, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary
Predicted pass block rank: No. 27
Predicted run block rank: No. 30
Atlanta's tackles occupied two of the bottom three spots in the run block win rate ranks at the position last season, with McGary finishing last among the 70 qualifiers. Meanwhile, Mayfield was last in pass block win rate among guards.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected starters: Cam Robinson, Ben Bartch, Tyler Shatley, Brandon Scherff, Jawaan Taylor
Predicted pass block rank: No. 29
Predicted run block rank: No. 29
I'm somewhat surprised Jacksonville ends up last here given the improvement that Robinson and especially Taylor made in pass protection last season, plus the Scherff signing at guard. But there are of course weaknesses here.
The model still holds Robinson's and Taylor's 2020 struggles against them to some degree. Taylor also ranked second worst in RBWR among tackles last season, and Shatley would have ranked second worst in RBWR at center had he qualified there.